By Dan Satherley
By the late 2020s there could be more than 1 million New Zealanders eligible for superannuation, under the current regime.
According to new population projections from Statistics NZ, in 15 years, people aged 65 and over will outnumber children under 15.
Currently there are 600,000 superannuitants, compared to 900,000 children.
“These trends reflect much lower fertility rates in recent decades, and people continuing to live longer,” says population statistics manager Andrea Blackburn.
New Zealand's total population is projected to reach 5 million in the mid 2020s and 6 million in 2061, with a quarter of them aged 65 or over. New Zealand's current population is 4.4 million, with around 14 percent aged 65 or over.
"A population of 7 million or more by 2061 is unlikely barring major changes in fertility rates or net migration," says government statistician Geoff Bascand.
Prime Minister John Key has repeatedly ruled out upping the age of eligibility for superannuation.
Currently the median age in New Zealand is 37, up from 26 in 1971. By 2061, it could be as high as 44.
"The gradual ageing reflects the combined impact of people having fewer children, people living longer, and the large number of people born between 1950 and the early 1970s moving into the older ages," says Statistics NZ.
In the last decade, population growth has averaged 1.2 percent. This is up on the 1980s when it was 0.7 percent, but far below the 1950s, when it was 2.2 percent.
There is a one-in-three chance deaths could exceed births by 2061, and a one-in-six chance New Zealand's overall population could be in decline.
If no migration in or out of New Zealand, Statistics NZ says our population would reach a peak of 5.1 million in the 2050s, then start declining.
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