By Patrick Gower
Labour high-flyer and union boss Andrew Little will launch his Parliamentary career by standing in the New Plymouth electorate.
Nominations open today, and 3 News has learned Little will put his name forward - confirmed by top-level sources in the Labour hierarchy.
Of course there is a selection process to follow, but Little is the Labour Party President. Make no mistake: he will win the candidacy.
A high-calibre candidate, Little is general secretary of the Engineering and Printing Manufacturing Union, a lawyer, and born-and-bred in New Plymouth.
He's widely touted as a future Labour leader.
New Plymouth is the most marginal electorate in the country - Labour's Harry Duynhoven lost to Jonathan Young by 105 votes.
By putting their local boy and big gun in, Labour are showing they want this seat back.
But it's a risky move.
Duynhoven had a hugely loyal following in New Plymouth.
Look at the party vote; there's a 6611 majority to National. So, really, Little needs 6716 votes to overturn Young.
So the risk is Little may not win - a loss would be hugely embarrassing and set his career off to a stuttering start.
Of course, he would still come into Parliament on a high list spot.
If Little really backs himself and cares about the New Plymouth, maybe he will have the guts to go all-or-nothing and not take a list spot.
I don't think we'll see that - he will like the insurance.
He politely declined to comment when contacted by 3 News today.
While risky, there are huge rewards in this - a power base from which to launch his career. Electorates are still vitally important to those who want to make big moves in politics because of the base they give.
Prime Minister John Key came back and got one even though he could have gone on the list. And just ask Shane Jones how it feels to be dependent on list selection.
Little is Wellington-based and would obviously have preferred an electorate there. Some, like my boss Duncan Garner, thought he might inherit Annette King's Rongotai.
Little would secretly have been hoping to get one of these seats, not just because he wouldn't have to move, but because they are truly safe.
The Wellington seat is obviously not going to happen and Little wants to get an electorate, rather than wait another three years.
It will be a case of leading from the front as well. Labour got a caning in the regions at the last election, winning just one seat - Palmerston North.
Little will lead the attempts to win these back.
He will bank heavily on his local links. His parents are well-known, with his father Major W.O. (Bill) Little (retired) a prolific letter writer to the Taranaki Daily News until he died - he was a big supporter of Palestinian cause.
The excellent Taranaki Daily News journalist Lyn Humphreys wrote a good feature called The Man on the Left.
Little will also hope to get an "endorsement" of kinds from Duynhoven - who is not standing again.
And he will look to build a core around the EPMU workers in the oil and gas industry. But Little is no roughneck - he's got an academic and liberal streak.
He'll have big-time backing from the union too, who will be eager to launch their man into Parliamentary politics. Little has a bit of a crew of his own who will bring their expertise in campaigning into town.
Jonathan Young was a latecomer to the National nomination. He knows how close it was - the independent Rusty Kane came in third with 756 votes and if he hadn't been in the race they could have gone to Duynhoven.
Young is a New Plymouth Boys High man too and his Taranaki links are strong - father Venn was an MP, but, more importantly, Venn played representative rugby for Taranaki. (Its no secret this writer is a Taranaki man and rates the Amber and Blacks highly.)
Young will be very worried right now.
So Little will try and win back a provincial seat – a seat where the blue collar Joe and Jodene walked away from Labour in their droves, because of Nanny State and anti-smacking.
Political watchers will keep a close eye on this election. How Little goes will be a good barometer for how well Labour does.
But should he win New Plymouth, then the real fun will begin in Parliament, because everyone here will be looking to see what Little's next move will be.
3 News