By Patrick Gower
It seems inevitable John Banks will take out Don Brash as the leader of the ACT party.
Banks has all the moral authority in the party now.
We've already seen with the dope debate that nothing will happen in the new-look ACT without his say-so.
It is one-nill to Banksie.
That is the way it is going to go from here on in. Banks is in charge.
He is ACT's ticket back into Parliament. It is simple: ACT will not get back without John Banks.
Brash meanwhile is Mr 2 Percent.
The only way Brash could keep his authority is if he got ACT over or close to the 5 percent threshold - and that seems unlikely to happen.
On current polling Brash will be worried that he will not even be able to ride in on Banks' coat-tails.
Unlike Brash, Banks is a politician to his bones. He's done it all and seen it all. Twice.
Banks learnt the trade from Rob Muldoon and did a pretty good impression when I saw him yesterday.
Banks doesn't like playing second fiddle to anyone. He hasn't done it for years.
Banks will almost definitely get back to Parliament because of the filthy deal with National in Epsom, where he only has to beat his former servant/biographer, Paul Goldsmith.
Can you imagine Banks sitting behind more Brash bumbling? I don't think so.
Banks is looking for some kind of legacy.
Brash looked worried yesterday when I asked him if he expected to get taken out by Banks.
Banks laughed when I asked him if he would rule out rolling Brash at some point.
I think Banks is horrified by the thought of leading the ACT party. He's not an ACT man. He's just used them as a shortcut to getting back into some kind of power.
I don't think Banksie really likes the ACT party faithful all that much.
But Banks has made his bed now. He must lie in it. That will be on his own terms - as leader, even if it’s a one-man band.
Maybe he will help the party reinvent itself, with the likes of Colin Craig - the Association of Conservative Taxpayers perhaps?
Or maybe he will just be a Jim Anderton/Peter Dunne figure.
Either way, life for ACT as we know it is over.