Chance of big Christchurch quake drops by 20 percent

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Fri, 03 Feb 2012 6:12p.m.

The chances of another big quake have reduced by 20 percent, compared with earlier forecasts

The chances of another big quake have reduced by 20 percent, compared with earlier forecasts

By Jessica Rowe

GNS Science has released information showing the chances of another big quake have reduced by 20 percent, compared with earlier forecasts.

GNS says the new data is a positive sign for the rebuild that is still to come.

Just when Cantabrians thought the ground was finally settling down, a couple of pre-Christmas aftershocks reminded everybody the seismic show is not over yet.

But it is fading away.

Scientists now believe the likelihood of another big quake has reduced by 20 percent compared with their forecasts from late last year.

“Our ability we believe to be more accurate about our forecast, suggests we were somewhat pessimistic and the future looks more optimistic than that,” says Kelvin Berryman, of GNS Science.

GNS has released new figures based on a model designed by scientists from around the globe, which takes into account the recent aftershocks in December and January.

The figures show over the next 12 months there is:

  • 82 percent chance of a magnitude 5 to 5.4.
  • 39 percent chance of a 5.5 to 5.9
  • 13 percent chance of a 6 to 6.4
  • 4 percent chance of a 6.5 to 6.9
  • 1 percent chance of a 7 or higher

Quake weary locals do not really know who to believe any longer.

GNS says the shakes will continue over the next few years or even decades, but careful land zoning and tougher building codes should prevent a repeat of last February’s catastrophe.

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Comments

04 Feb 2012 10:57p.m.

johnmillan wrote:

Japan have more clues than what they have got here,they are just playing monopoly with theories,If they are that good lotto Strike and power ball should get struck every week along with all other lottery games.Japan dont even know how to forecast the next quake,when and where and at what time date or magnitude as they get shakes more often than Nz has ever had.And they would be more skilled in earthquakes that any one here.

04 Feb 2012 08:22p.m.

Homer wrote:

Wake up people!! These scientists don't have a clue. The one thing they wont acknowledge is the fact that planetary alignment does affect this planet and is causing the big quakes along with shifts in the earths axis. Do your research, there is plenty of proof. Search 188 day cycle major quakes. Proof is out there and is undeniable. Next big quake is predicted for 22nd March, going by 188 day cycle. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSHJIzgle8k

04 Feb 2012 12:30a.m.

The Dude wrote:

Another Media organisation printing rubbish. Stop with all the speculation and pointless % guessing. No-one knows what could happen - that's the only fact you should be publishing.

03 Feb 2012 10:25p.m.

talsien wrote:

considering that the 6.0 we got 23/12/11 was rated by gns as a 2% chance (still showing on their table from 16 dec to 14 jan) i dont think that their revised model of another 6.0 is at 13% is any reason to claim the chances of big ones have reduced by 20% ,, unless maths have changed drastically since i went to school

03 Feb 2012 08:00p.m.

Erm... wrote:

SO thye scientists are guessing and really don't have a clue.