Chance of mag 7 quake in Christchurch ‘low’ but not ‘zero'

Fri, 06 Jan 2012 2:05p.m.

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A top GNS seismologist has told Christchurch council officials and media that a 7 magnitude quake is unlikely to hit the city but not impossible.

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03 Feb 2012 11:51p.m.

Anne wrote:

I beg to disagree with Dr Kelvin Berryman, and realise we still live in the Red Zone, but we have most definitely had liquefaction, and plenty of it, from 5's!

06 Jan 2012 04:32p.m.

Shane wrote:

@ Sarah - How does the fact that we had those large quakes since the May 2011 probabilities were released make their predictions out of whack? When a 6.0 or close to it quake hits, it changes the probabilities again since that 23% prediction in May 2011 because of the unsettling of the earth, there had been re released probabilities since May - it's not the be all and end all of probabilities predictions. Also they said that East is the direction that the quakes have been travelling, they didn't claim that they are definately going to keep heading east.

06 Jan 2012 03:34p.m.

moral outrage wrote:

@ Christine. You beat me to it by the shake of a lambs tale. That 5. was a wink by a merciless mistress, Mother Nature for those boasting to predict her moods and swings

06 Jan 2012 03:23p.m.

chrisitne wrote:

looks like we have had another 5 at 220pm today so what is next?

06 Jan 2012 03:07p.m.

sarah wrote:

They told us back in May that there was a 23% chance of a 5.0-6.0 mag earthquake... Bingo! June 13th 5.8 & 6.3..... BINGO! Dec 23rd 5.8 & 6.0 My maths ain't great but it makes their "predictions' completely out of wack! They are now saying the quakes are heading East away from the city and are setting each other off... Actually they are heading East/North towards the Kaiapoi fault which IS capable of a 7.0 ... If you were a betting person what do you think the chances are????? And by the way we've just had another 5.0 which makes how many above mag 5's in the past 2 1/2 weeks??? (4)....

06 Jan 2012 02:15p.m.

wondering wrote:

I am wondering that it took an extensive meeting and media hype to tell us this. We all accept this living in the Shakey Isles that any where in NZ there is a low but real risk of a 7. 0 quake and small tsunami .