Fri, 30 Jul 2010 1:22p.m.
By Duncan Garner
I said a few years ago that the politician's default position is to lie. Helen Clark attacked me for it. I stood by it. I still do.
Today once again I've proved right. Why? Because two months ago Chris Carter told me on camera, he's looking forward to serving as Foreign Minister under a Phil Goff led Government in 2011. That was obviously crap. He never meant it. It's what you say when you can't tell the truth.
But now he's been honest. He's told the full and unadulterated truth. And that's going to hurt Goff more than Carter.
Carter is toast. We all now know that. He will be expelled next weekend by the Labour Party. That's a given. This is the death rattle. This is the end of his career. He will end his time in Parliament next year as a lonely and unpopular independent MP with few friends. And he'll stay because he wants the money.
But he's thrown a series of hand grenades into the caucus and out amongst the voters by saying Goff can't win the next election.
And I don't disagree with him. Goff is up against it. NZ has only had two post-war one term Governments. They have both been Labour Governments. National is certainly on track to govern for another term. Why? Because Goff is stale, and unelectable as a Prime Minister. He's been around too long - 30 years at the next election. He's a nice guy. I know him well. I enjoy his company at times. He was my former lecturer in Auckland when I studied and he was doing time out of Parliament in the early ‘90s.
But Carter is right. Nice guys don't always win, and Carter is speaking the truth - as much as that hurts the Labour party.
I have spoken to many Labour MPs privately over the past 18 months about Goff - few think he can win. Most say he will lead the party into the 2011 election and the change will be made immediately after Goff loses.
Carter's brain explosion is enormously damaging. Trevor Mallard's doing his usual Labour trick saying Carter's unbalanced - and whatever that means - he may be. Mallard has to say that - Labour has to minimise the damage done by Carter's comments.
Goff will remain leader until 2011 now. There's for certain. This failed, aborted and hopeless coup is not even deserving of the use of the word coup. A bunch of kids could have done a better job.
But Carter's idiotic approach and failed outburst will from now until the next election remind Labour voters that Goff can't do it. And what's worse - it's not me or some other journo saying it - it's someone from within.
Carter has cut Goff's throat in public. Labour will expel him next weekend. He has been disgraced. He will never be forgiven. But it's worse than that. He's taken the collective Labour Party out with him. Labour is now campaigning to come a respectable second in 2011 - and when you turn up everyday hoping to win - many will now be asking themselves - what's the bloody point of this?
David Cunliffe has eighteen months to become liked within the caucus and to get some numbers around him. But as one National Minister told me last night, if Cunliffe is the answer - then will Labour ever return to Government in the next decade?