Spring may have "sprung" but some holidaymakers and farmers can expect spring-like weather patterns to continue through the first half of January, says an Auckland weatherman.
A strong westerly flow, particularly over the lower two thirds of the nation, will continue to bring more
"wild temperatures" in eastern areas of the South Island, with cold southwest winds followed by scorching nor'westers, said meteorologist Philip Duncan.
The analyst, who also writes a weather "blog" said the typical El Nino pattern was bad news for people in northern and eastern NZ who desperately need rain.
Though no forecast can tell what the weather will be like in 2010, Mr Duncan predicted the first three months of the year will be dominated by highs in the Tasman Sea and more westerlies.
But he told NZPA it was also important to remember New Zealand is just two small mountainous islands at the bottom of the South Pacific, which meant that there was a chance that despite the El Nino "dry" a wandering sub-tropical low might yet help parched farms in the north and north east.
Northland is the driest region in the country so far this summer, and farmers have reported drought-like conditions, with pastures and crops turning brown in the Far North, on the east coast and in southern sections of the Whangarei and Kaipara districts.
Mr Duncan told NZPA said the past decade had been relatively quiet in terms of weather.
"Our last direct hits by tropical cyclones were Fergus, Drena and Gavin back in the summer of '96 and '97," he said. "It means we're well overdue for a direct hit".
The two most memorable storms of the past ten years were the February 2004 big floods in the Manawatu, and the mammoth snow storm in the winter of 2006 which caught thousands of people by surprise and stranded many people for two weeks without power, phones or open roads.
"I believe the next 10 years will be more dramatic than the past 10," said Mr Duncan.
He said 2009 had been "another crazy year" for weather, with the most spectacular event being the dramatic hail storm that blanketed Mt Maunganui on May 11.
MetService spokesman Bob McDavitt said that 2009 globally was the fifth warmest year in the past 130 years, with 2005 the warmest and 2007 the second.
He said 2009 started with air temperatures close to the long term mean figure, but in May those temperatures dived to wintry lows, and then there was a "very strange" flat-line in over three months from August, with temperatures finally returning to normal again towards the end of the year.
May, August and October "stand out as the weirdest weather months of the past year," he said.
May temperatures were well below average over most of the country with many areas experiencing record low temperatures for the month. The big chill was caused by many low-pressure systems lingering just east of New Zealand, held there by a blocking anticyclone in the mid South Pacific, which resulted in more southerly air flows than normal over New Zealand.
August had the warmest temperatures for that month since records began 155 years ago, with record temperatures in many areas, then the country had the coldest October in 64 years, with all-time record low temperatures for the month and exceptionally late snowfalls.
The cause was similar to the blocking weather patterns of May, with troughs held near New Zealand by anticyclones over southeast Australia and the mid South Pacific, which fed frequent northerly winds onto the country.
The year's hottest temperature was 38degC at Culverden on February 8.
NZPA