By Duncan Garner
For days there has been an unofficial non-aggression pact between Labour and National over the Government's response to the devastation in Christchurch.
Anything else would be a political disaster for both parties. But don't expect the political peace to last forever.
The Prime Minister's handling of the crisis so far has been sharp. The only criticism perhaps is that he should have cancelled his European trip on Monday - but he realised that by Tuesday morning and it was off.
Labour Leader Phil Goff also knows this is no time to be criticising the Government. He also knows the power of incumbency. Labour can do little. It can offer support. At best it can hitch itself to National's juggernaut - and Goff has done just that.
Key did the right thing taking Goff to Christchurch last night. It does no one any harm to see our political leaders turning up together. Would Clark have taken Brash? Would Clark have taken Key? I actually doubt it.
The response to this earthquake will be one of the defining issues this term. It may be the defining issue. Key knows that now.
So what should we make of the official response so far?
Key has been down twice, as has Goff. Being there, being seen is everything.
The $5m contribution to the mayoral fund looked small initially - but it shouldn't be seen in isolation. This disaster will need rolling Government initiatives for months, perhaps years to come.
Yesterday, the Government rightly moved to subsidise small businesses who cannot pay wages. Workers will get $350 a week for four weeks. Business may top that up. $350 a week is less than the minimum wage. But it's a lot more than the emergency benefit. It's also a challenge to companies to do the right thing.
But it really was the least the Government could do. Without a short term wage subsidy - Key would have looked exposed. It's no good turning up at welfare centres, posing with little kids, if you don't bring gifts.
It could cost taxpayers $75m over the next four weeks. I don't hear anyone moaning about that. Remember the Government paid investors in the failed South Canterbury Finance company $1.6 billion. Key had to stump up to the workers without work in Christchurch. There was no option.
But what happens in four weeks. Some of these businesses will shut down. Others won't open for months - if at all. The Government now probably needs to be working on a plan to come into place next month - for those workers who do lose their jobs. Paying them welfare won't work. Officials should be looking for jobs for these people now. With a disaster also comes opportunity. There will be plenty in the months ahead down south - but right now the short term pain is severe. The long term economic gain, the building boom, is still some time away.
So Labour's support for the Government over this issue should last for at least the next four weeks.
But expect Labour to start asking serious questions again soon when the workers’ welfare package dries up. It's why Key, his Ministers and their officials need to start thinking ahead.
Work and Income officials have impressed me. They have contacted 11,000 pensioners living alone. They are now knocking on the doors of another 7,000 they have failed to reach by phone. That's a big effort - an impressive deed from the much maligned 'bureaucrats on the frontline. Good on them.
Then there's the issue of the uninsured. And the Government has so far, rightly so, been non-committal about them. It's a tricky moral issue. Indeed a moral and political hazard. Key has suggested if the uninsured elderly on fixed incomes can prove hardship then the Government may look at some form of insurance pay-out. But it was really only Key musing at this stage.
Around 5% of Christchurch is thought to be uninsured - and this tricky issue may pop up later down the track.
But so far the political response has been measured and impressive.
Appointing a senior Minister to be based in Christchurch was a good call. Labour's support and decision to stand shoulder to shoulder with Key and National was all it could do. That must be frustrating after years of having the hands on the pump - but that's why it's called opposition. Voters gave you the flick.
So politically this earthquake may well define Key. Unlike Brash, he's pitched as a compassionate conservative, a caring conservative. And so far his response has matched that. But he will need to stay in touch. He will need to keep playing banker to the people for a while yet.
If Labour feels National is dropping the ball, it will in time rightly pounce.
Key won't want that to happen. It's why he ditched having high tea with the Queen, scones with David Cameron and croissants with the French president.
Key looks in control, and the images so far have been good. That's called incumbency.
But Labour holds most of the seats down in Christchurch and the hard luck stories are likely to be fed to its MPs in the months to come. They in turn, and in time, may choose to embarrass the Government. Key will be aware of that. The earthquake response will define Key and his Government. So far it has passed the test. But the challenges and risks in the days, months and year ahead can't and shouldn't be underestimated.