Fears another big quake could be in store

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Mon, 02 Jan 2012 6:03p.m.

Dr Mark Quigley

Dr Mark Quigley

By Annabelle Tukia

It's just what Christchurch didn't want to hear - warnings that more quakes may be on the way.

The word comes from Canterbury University scientists who've been looking at a marked increase in seismic activity in a fault off the eastern coastline.



A new year, but the same old reality - thousands of Canterbury households were jolted awake this morning after a series of overnight earthquakes, the biggest measuring 5.5.

Ten thousand homes in the city's east lost their power temporarily after the shakes knocked out a transformer at the Dallington substation.

"Unfortunately the quake of this size this morning, and probably the length of it, tripped it out," says Orion's Stuart Kilduff.

The swarm of quakes began just before 1:30am with a 5.1 magnitude shake. It was followed by a number of threes and fours. But they were only were the curtain-raisers - the main event was a 5.5 located off the New Brighton coastline in Pegasus Bay.

Geologist Mark Quigley says the heightened activity isn't unusual after the big shakes just before Christmas, and they're not likely to be over yet.

"It's a virtual certainty of getting more earthquakes greater than five, and even a moderate chance of another six going forward," he says.

Dr Quigley says the location of these most recent aftershocks means there is concern about a group of faults in Pegasus Bay, including faults offshore of Kaiapoi. These haven't ruptured for thousands of years, but are big enough to generate a quake of magnitude 7.0.

"Because of the way things are shifting around out there, I think it's difficult for us," says Dr Quigley. "We don't know exactly when the last event was. It's difficult to put our finger on that precisely and also the precise reoccurrence interval."

Christchurch's mayor accepts that people will have to endure more quakes.

"For some it will be the last straw, but really its just a series of aftershocks and we need to prepare ourselves. There will be more inevitably, but nobody was hurt, no significant damage and that's the good news."

Residents hoping for a quiet start to 2012 weren't impressed this morning's rude awakenings.

The good news is that this time damage was minimal, and so was the liquefaction.

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Comments

04 Jan 2012 02:00p.m.

Dave wrote:

I live in Ch Ch. The existence of the Kaiapoi fault in Pegasus Bay and the fact that it "could" produce an earthquake between 6 and 7 magnitude (but not when) has been published before in the Ch Ch Press, Ch Ch Star and on other web sites and newspapers since June 2011. It's been the subject of specific questions sent by readers to the Ch Ch Press in September in their "ask a geologist" series. TV3's revelation is nothing new. They just re-hashed an old story and made it news again by adding it in to news re the overnight earthquake swarm here over the New Year. I found the story poorly written, sensationalist in part, short on some facts, and certainly likely to create considerable alarm for persons not aware of the Kaiapoi fault by the very nature of its headline. Why they raised it at a time when anxiety levels in Ch Ch were high due to quakes since 23 December is something only they can answer.

04 Jan 2012 01:40p.m.

wondering wrote:

I am wondering whether it will all be anti climactic when we get through to the end of the year with only a few mild shakes across the country , some higher than usual tides and the tail end of a couple of cyclones. There will be a group some where in NZ lobbying that they were ripped off on the Apocalypse warnings

03 Jan 2012 08:09p.m.

reality wrote:

I think his statement stated a possiblity of a seven mag,well thats what I read and not from the video interview and also who knows,think we all know the earthquakes are not over what ever the mag size best to keep it real and be prepared instead of picking holes in every media statement released,what I think people are missing is the fact the main thing is be prepared for what ever mother earth has install.

03 Jan 2012 07:25p.m.

Graeme wrote:

angry (03 Jan 2012 3:17p.m.) how can scientists work with Ken Ring, a pseudoscientist. His "theory", if it needs to be explained again, has been shown to be false, yet he persists with it, which makes him a charlatan. That's like asking an investment bank to work with Nigerian email scammers. And you should probably listen to whole interview, there was no prediction of a 7.

03 Jan 2012 03:17p.m.

angry wrote:

just dropped my partner and my son in Timaru cause they are terrified of the ensueing predicted 7mag.I dont think they will be coming back!!!!!!!!!! Im disgusted thanks TV3 for something you wouldnt even let Ken Ring speak about. (By the way he had advised prior to the 23rd Dec shakes and had tried to tell Marcus Lush on radio live who apparently cut him off)Maybe John Key and his people who threatened him and his family are now looking at your doorstep. Why cant the scientists and Ken ring work together and maybe they will find some usefull information/patterns for us here where the ground is speaking. Its time to put pride aside and at least listen

03 Jan 2012 01:30p.m.

Daniel wrote:

I did not hear a "warning that a big one 7 on the ritcher scale is probably comming" anywhere in that story?? TV3 need to clarify that statement further.

03 Jan 2012 01:28p.m.

Steve wrote:

Although the story was grossly exaggerated by the media, I still want to know the information. I think it would be foolish to withhold information such as a new fault becoming more active and the potential energy stored in it - knowledge is power. I personally don’t get bent out of shape with hearing the opinions of Ken Ring or facts presented by GNS scientists but I am aware that others are getting tired of it. I have accepted that the media are always going to dramatise EQ’s and that they are going to keep happening, I don’t let it annoy me, it’s just easier.

03 Jan 2012 12:50p.m.

Amy wrote:

I thank Dr. Quigley and TV3 for their honesty. The headline is a bit sensational, but the facts stated by Dr. Quigley are based on science. Unfortunately science needs facts and models to project accurate predictions and the ChCh sequence is very unusual and the exact history of the faults are unknown. So, we all will live with uncertainty and prepare best we can for the chance of a 7. I prefer this honesty to the Press headline "Shocks may be last gasp of Feb 22 fault". I find that implies that it is over and it may not be. So how is my family spending the day? We're reviewing our house and securing a few furniture items that we had overlooked. We are weatherproofing our shed so we can store our camping and emergency supplies there in case a big event makes our house unsafe. We are not helpless and can take steps to reduce the impact of earthquakes. We will only do that if we know the facts. Stop whining, get working, then hug your loved ones and live as happily as you can.

03 Jan 2012 12:35p.m.

Julie wrote:

Journalistic sensationalism at its worst. Dr Quigley didn't say a 7 was probably coming... he said they don't know! The fault capable of producing that might be close or it might not. I get that you want ratings and page views, I do. But where is the 'fair and balanced' in this trash?

03 Jan 2012 12:12p.m.

Vicky Palmer wrote:

I think they have mentioned in the past that the off shore group of faults are capable of producing an earthquake of Mag 7.0. This does not mean its gonna happen! Canterbury, in particular Christchurch have always had seismic activity, we are just more aware of it now. Sure it is scary, but we are doing okay! Cantabs are tough resiliant people!