Legal action is underway in Fiji, where courts have issued a warrant for the arrest of Commodore Frank Bainimarama's former right-hand man after his flight to Tonga.
Earlier in the month Ratu Tevita Mara fled to Tonga with help from the Tongan Navy.
Bainimarama is planning an extradition process to bring him back to face charges.
Firstline asked Steven Ratuva, senior lecturer at Auckland University's Centre for Pacific Studies, if he thought the situation was as serious as reports indicate.
Mr Ratuva said that while Bainimarama’s belief that Tonga’s action was a breach of sovereignty added weight to the situation, Fiji and Tonga’s historical closeness should allow the situation to be “sorted out pretty easily”.
He thinks a counter-coup against Bainimarama is possible, and says there have been past attempts to get rid of Bainimarama.
“Even within the military itself, even before the coup… there were officers who weren’t happy with him,” Mr Ratuva says
“What he's done is to replace them with much younger officers as a way of regaining his control of the military.”
Fiji’s strong reaction to the Tonga navy action is partially caused by embarrassment, says Mr Ratuva.
“Bainimarama felt embarrassed... that [Mara] could get away, that the Tongan navy could snatch him away, and the embarrassment turned to anger.”
He praised the “quite diplomatic” Tongan response, saying it had brought the anger down to the level of diplomacy.
Mr Ratuva doesn’t expect major conflict to arise over the issue, and says that with the legal process in place the two countries can begin to “move on” without New Zealand interference.
“Fiji and Tonga can sort it out… perhaps New Zealand and Australia, because of their relationship with Fiji, might not be seen as politically viable at this time.
“It might be better if they observe from the sideline.”
Prime Minister John Key said this morning that he wouldn't speculate on the “very delicate situation”, saying that as Fiji and Tonga were both using the court system there was no immediate need for New Zealand to intervene.
“We’ll continue to keep an eye on it,” he said, “but we wouldn’t want to inflame the situation.”
Watch the video for the full interview
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