Wed, 16 Jun 2010 1:19p.m.
By Duncan Garner
Chris Carter's meltdown yesterday can really only be described as a brain explosion. He undermined his leader, his party and his future.
Carter's career in the Labour party looks over in my opinion. Sure, he may return from this enforced leave, but he returns a wounded solider and Goff will never trust him again.
Indeed, Goff is likely to demote him further in a future reshuffle.
It does make me wonder though what sort of influence and grip Carter continues to have over his Labour colleagues. I thought he was lucky to get ranked at number 13 yesterday and pick up Conservation. He should have been happy with that. He should have accepted his mistakes and moved on. We all know he didn't.
Goff could have chosen to get tougher on Carter last night. Goff had every right to strip Carter of that new portfolio late yesterday and demote him further down the ranks. He chose not to. Some might perceive Goff’s position as weak. I don't.
Goff, in my opinion, has dealt with this well. To nail Carter further may have turned him into a nasty martyr and that could have consequences for Goff's leadership - best to keep him in the tent under home detention than a lone wolf causing trouble in the wilderness.
Goff has Carter just where he needs him - in the naughty corner pleading for forgiveness.
Which brings me to Goff's next moves. Another reshuffle. It's clear another reshuffle is coming later in the year. It has to. Labour seriously needs generational change if it wants to compete. I think Labour will struggle to win the next election anyway - and that's hardly a bold call. But Goff needs to signal to the country that Labour is a new and improved party with fresh faces and fresh ideas.
I've already written that Grant Robertson's elevation is smart. I see him as potentially a future leader.
Goff also needs to promote others later in the year. Robertson could go to the front bench - depending on how he muscles up against Steven Joyce.
Jacinda Adern is young and smart and standing in Auckland Central and is likely to move forward but not by much. Phil Twyford is likely to get more responsibility. David Parker is on the way up the frontbench. Could he get Finance? It's an interesting thought? There are whispers going around about this? David Cunliffe would take it hard - but give him something else important and tell him he's amazing. That should keep him quiet.
Darren Hughes is likely to stay on as Chief Whip at number 8.
Kelvin Davis is highly regarded and might get something. So too David Shearer. But after that the cupboard is a bit bare.
So who goes? Ruth Dyson is seen as very much part of the old Helen Clark guard. She's been largely ineffective in denting Tony Ryall in Health. On the surface of it Dyson could get reshuffled off the front bench, but like Carter, she holds a degree of influence in the party hierarchy and I struggle to understand why.
And surely Labour needs to signal time up for a few ageing MPs. A host of retirements are likely to be signalled later in the year, before the reshuffle.
George Hawkins adds little value these days and Labour needs to try and convince him to bail. Ross Robertson also.
Labour needs to find a safe-ish seat for its President Andrew Little. I have no doubt that Little will try to seek the leadership at some stage.
Little could get Rongotai but sitting MP Annette King is showing few signs she wants to relinquish her vice like grip on Southern Wellington. And anyway, I reckon she's done a deal with Darren Hughes to do a handover at some stage.
Little would be perfect in South Auckland, in George Hawkins seat. There's also talk of New Plymouth.
But what I'm saying is Labour needs fresh blood. It needs to show it's not beholden to the Clark era. Goff needs to be much bolder than he was yesterday. But reshuffles are fraught with problems - especially in a party as factionalised as Labour.
Goff and King have more than 50 years combined experience in Parliament. That's a strength and a weakness. Sure they're experienced and a safe pair of hands. Goff has shown that this week. But they're hardly the future of the country are they? That's why Goff needs a serious and bold shake-up. He has a few cards. He needs to play them.