Christine Rankin, Melissa Lee and Richard Worth have all collided in a month that should be called 'National's trainwreck'!
It's clear the Government's honeymoon is well and truly over. Now for the lessons. John Key needs to re-evaluate who does what on the 9th floor. He needs some help and I'll get to that in a minute.
The Christine Rankin issue has been well and truly dealt with. It was a stupid and naive decision. My sources tell me the Beehive thought this would be a 24 hour story - it wasn't - it was bad advice.
Then there's been the on-going Melissa Lee debacle. She was John Key's choice as the candidate for Mt Albert.
But as soon as she was chosen, National's lack of experience - perhaps its complacency - became obvious. Lee was left to squander - and she was too arrogant to see it.
Why didn't someone on her team ring the Beehive at the start of the campaign and ask what was happening with the Waterview Tunnel Connection? Why didn't they ask Transport Minister Steven Joyce what to say and what not to say?
Why didn't Jonathan Coleman help her with this? He was the lead Minister - leading Lee through the by-election minefield. Why Coleman? Because he had won Northcote for National, because he was 'so good'. Then there's a bloke called Tim Hurdle. He is Gerry Brownlee's Senior Private Secretary. He's on 'leave' and has been 'running' Lee's campaign on the side. Why Hurdle? Because he helped Nikki Kaye win Auckland Central, and I hear he promoted himself as the right guy for the by-election job. But none of these brains could save Lee from herself.
So Lee is set to lose badly on Saturday in Mt Albert. She'll probably come second - but not by much. Her walking-talking disasters have been well documented.
Then there's Richard Worth. I always thought it was a strange call to make him a Minister. The February "mini-scandal" involving his trip to India was messy but defensible. Key couldn't sack Worth for that. But it should have been a warning to the 9th floor - to put Richard on "Worth-Watch".
So when Phil Goff came to Key on May the 6th, the PM's political radar should have exploded. Why? Here's your main rival - the man who wants your job, tapping you on the shoulder, saying there's a whole lot of dirt on Worth you need to get the bottom of. And what did Key and his staff do? They made one phone call to Worth - who denied it and threatened lawyers.
Worth should have been dealt to then. A proper, internal investigation should have taken place and Worth should have been sacked. The public would have understood. There's no great love of Richard Worth out there. Key only needed one text to prove it. But he let Worth continue and then once the next set of allegations came in, Worth was gone. But it was all too late really.
Labour is now playing with Key. It doesn't want the texts to come out too quickly. It doesn't want the scandal to end. As it enters each new day, Key looks less Prime Ministerial, playing in the gutter with Goff and the dirty texts. Goff's sole mission here is to damage Key and show him as having poor judgement. Labour of course will now paint themselves as caring for the woman at the centre of the unwanted texts.
So, here's my advice. All of these scenarios - Rankin, Lee and Worth - were avoidable if Key had someone pulling together Ministerial Communications at a higher level. Someone pointing out the risks, not only on a daily basis, but in the short term. Someone like a Heather Simpson figure.
I don't want this to read as a criticism of his Chief Press Secretary Kevin Taylor, nor his other advisors. It's just that Key is a person or two short up there.
He needs someone who isn't doing the daily slog like Kevin Taylor has to. Like Paula Oliver has to. Like his Chief of Staff Wayne Eagleson has to. He needs someone else - someone experienced in the game to compliment them.
Key is hugely loyal. It's my understanding that any suggestions of hiring someone else have been met with fierce resistance from Key and Eagleson. And Key is to be commended for that.
But, and I repeat, this is not a slight on Kevin Taylor - or anyone else. It's a warning, really. Labour will continue to try and trip Key and his staff up. They have smelt blood on this Worth issue - and have probably worked out how National and Key's office operates.
Goff has been around a long time. So have some of his staff, who are fresh out of Government. Now they seem to be playing with Key's office over just what the texts say and whether Key will ever see them.
It's actually childish and perhaps Goff doesn't actually want to resolve this at all. He just wants to monster Key - and right now Key doesn't look good. He looks reactive and slow. Can you ever imagine Helen Clark saying she'd meet with the National Party member responsible for taunting one of her former Ministers?
She'd launch an attack on the person, question their credibility and then send in some Trevor Mallard type figure to kneecap them. That person would then be encouraged to leave the country, would be reminded that Australia was too close, and that perhaps outer Siberia might be just the ticket.
So what I'm saying is this:
John Key needs a new strategist to help identify daily political risks before they happen. It might be that Key needs to put Taylor into that role and get someone to do his current job so he is free from the shackles of the daily grind.
So Key needs help. 2011 is still a long way off but the Nats need to get their internal house in order if they want another term. Key has surprised me with some of his gut instinct calls - he has been very good at times. But on Worth, he missed his chance.
Key should be talking about the Budget and his ideas to get New Zealand out of the recession - not 'transparent garments' and 'vulgar, sexually explicit texts'.