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The housing market has fallen flat ahead of John Key's tax reform announcement tomorrow

The housing market has fallen flat ahead of John Key's tax reform announcement tomorrow

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Mon, 08 Feb 2010 11:55a.m.

By Brook Sabin

The housing market has fallen flat ahead of a major announcement on changes to the tax system.

While the latest figures from Quotable Value show a small increase in property prices – market activity is weak with investors concerned they are about to be hit with a land tax.

The New Year is normally a quiet time on the real estate front with people on the hunt for a tan, rather than a house.

But in late January there is normally a surge in property listings as the market gears up for the next two months – the busiest of the year. Instead, the market has been flat.

While we have seen prices up 4.4 percent on last January, they are still down more than 4 percent on the 2007 peak. Figures due out in the next week are expected to reveal sales volumes are down significantly.

That hesitation is coming from Parliament. Tomorrow the prime minister will make a speech at the opening of Parliament, and he's expected to give a clear direction where the Government is heading in terms of a new tax regime.

On the cards: a capital gains and land tax.

Investors are warning any draconian new taxes could derail a housing recovery.

“If property then becomes unattractive and investors have to put in too much money to top up the rents, to pay their outgoings, then yes – it will hold it back for a while,” says Martin Evans of the Property Investors Federation.

So all eyes will be on Parliament tomorrow to see just what indication the Government gives on new taxes and whether they will aid, or hinder, the patchy housing market.

But all experts agree, no matter what tax is imposed, rents are set to increase.

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Comments [10]

Enjay
08 Feb 2010 8:10p.m.

I'm a retired person, a pensioner, who saved hard to own my own home on a wee bit of land on which to grow my households vegs. and a few apples, and also managed to put a little by for a new pair of shoes, maybe a bottle of wine at odd times and more importantly pay for medical visits, and doing more or less as the Government asks, save for old age. Now 'they' are asking to take even more of my limited income. With this new tax no-one will want to buy the place when I sell in a year or two, as I must when the garden gets too much for me, our 'protectors' will take even more. They have family trusts to protect them, we weren't canny enough to do this, or to have been born into one of the many tribes. Yes Maoris will be exempt from this tax, isn't this racist?

Shirley
08 Feb 2010 7:07p.m.

I have read up on the proposed land tax and what it would mean to the average home owner and it makes for some very scary reading! This white paper may be found at http://www.victoria.ac.nz/sacl/cagtr/twg/Publications/3-land-tax-ird_treasury.pdf. If my understanding of the proposal/ equations is correct, it has huge implications for the average kiwi.

Original media coverage talked of a land tax of 0.1%; this paper uses figures based on 1%. Agreed, it’s only on the LV of your property, however, if your LV is $250,000 you will have to find an additional $2,500 per annum to give to the government – if you are on a married couple’s state pension that’s 10.2% of your annual income.

As if that is not bad enough, your LV will decrease in value by 16.7%, if you decide you want to sell your property after the introduction of this new tax, your LV is now only $208,250 meaning that your net worth has decreased by $41,750.

Don’t worry the new purchasers will not be penalised as land tax cannot be passed on, so the young couple now buying your property have just benefitted by your hard work over the years, building up your assets and having a nice home! But it’s all OK because it will make home ownership in NZ more affordable for those trying to get on the property ladder as they won’t have to find such a large deposit!

I hope that people wise up to this before it’s too late, it is not a tax that will hit just property investors, it will hurt everybody. Unemployment is now over 7%, where does this leave those poor people who have a mortgage and perhaps over 70% indebtedness, they will now have to find an additional sum for a new tax and they will also be in negative equity.

The flow on effects for business will be to pass on those costs to consumers, if you think that the food basket prices are up now, think what they will be after this new tax. Don’t forget the proposed GST increases and what this will all do to inflation and mortgage interest rates!

Jase
08 Feb 2010 3:48p.m.

Learn to live with it. I live in Aussie and land and capital gains have always been in place here. If landlords try to push too hard their place will be vacant which hurts most no rent or some rent? The best returns over here are about 5%

G
08 Feb 2010 2:52p.m.

Our Government wants more money invested in business - who does it think owns the buildings used by business - investers of course. The lower paid employees likewise rent from investers. Property investers in effect subsidise many businesses already. Rates do nothing but go up & up even when the property RV goes down! The costs of any such tax increases for property investment will have to end up being paid for by those who rent. It seems to me a very unwise move by any Government that desires to retain power as the costs of such changes will hit "across the board" with a heavy concommitant loss of popularity to the instigators.

katrina
08 Feb 2010 2:44p.m.

I will definately be putting my rent up anyway due to ongoing price increase in rates insurance and now land tax. Those who think the lower income bracket will be better off are delusional, those people are exactly who this will hit the hardest.

Dan
08 Feb 2010 2:12p.m.

I hope this govt. has thought it through thoroughly as Land is the only asset besides dairy and wine which seems to be working for them. If the property market goes down on account of the new taxation laws, so will this entire economy, at a time when recovery from recession was just on the cards. Welcome to the real world V.

A.Landlord
08 Feb 2010 1:49p.m.

@Great : I can assure you the rent will go up. I won't be wearing any additional cost. If the tenant doesn't like it, then that's fine by me.

What is needed is enforcement of existing tax provisions. There are too many DIY developers not declaring their true income. And too many 'sham' arrangments of people supposedly renting their house from their trust. Just get tough IRD!

bob
08 Feb 2010 1:33p.m.

Rubbish, rents will rise. If investors do not get a reasonable return they will sell leading to an even worse shortage of rental stock, as demand increase's and available rentals decrease then rents will rise. Once again the government is meddling where is should leave well enough along.

V
08 Feb 2010 1:09p.m.

A dose of reality V's realty.

Great
08 Feb 2010 12:49p.m.

Brilliant news. This might just be the one thing National gets right this year. Rents won't go up, because renters can barely afford the rates landlords charge already. And if houses become more affordable for first time buyers, then bring it on!

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