By Ally Mullord
A New Zealand academic says if Italian scientists are convicted of manslaughter for failing to predict an earthquake it will be outrageous and unjust.
Seven seismologists in Italy are facing charges of manslaughter for failing to predict an earthquake in the town of L'Aquila in 2009.
Victoria University Geophysics Professor Euan Smith says a conviction would be “outrageous and unjust”, and earthquake prediction isn't possible to that degree of accuracy.
Mr Smith was working for the seismological observatory ahead of the March 1987 Edgecumbe quake that hit the Bay of Plenty.
After 10 days of small earthquakes in the area, his director advised that a press statement be issued informing people “there is no reason to expect that there will be a larger earthquake forthcoming, but the earthquakes will continue and people should take sensible precautions”.
While the press statement was going out on March 2 the magnitude 6.5 earthquake happened, he says – something it would have been impossible to predict.
“We can only describe the likelihood of an earthquake of some magnitude occurring within some wide time period at some location,” Mr Smith says.
“We can’t say that an earthquake will happen on a particular day at a particular size, it’s not possible.”
Ken Ring has claimed to have predicted the Christchurch earthquakes, but Mr Smith says Mr Ring’s “track record is abysmal”.
“I’ve been asked if scientists should be accountable for the statements they make and I believe they should, within their area of expertise. Mr Ring’s not accountable.”
While quakes may not be possible to predict, Mr Smith says the earthquake vulnerability of a community can be estimated – something he says should have been more closely monitored in the Italian town of L’Aquila.
L’Aquila had two large earthquakes in the last 600 years, he says, but residents “persisted in living in buildings which were earthquake prone”.
“It seems to me much more responsibility rests with the people who allowed that circumstance to persist, rather than the scientists, who were trying to say something about the swarm of earthquakes that was happening.”
Watch the video for the full interview
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