Prime Minister John Key leaves today for the 192-nation UN climate change conference in Copenhagen, doubting a binding agreement is possible on greenhouse gas emissions but anticipating progress towards one.
More than 100 world leaders, including US President Barack Obama, will be at the conference during the next two days using their political clout to push through an agreement that has so far eluded officials and ministers.
Several draft texts have come close but there is a division between developed and developing nations over who is responsible for emissions, targets for reducing them and who should pay.
Mr Key said yesterday he didn't think any of the leaders were sure about what was going to happen.
"My sense is we will probably leave Copenhagen at the end of the week with a high-level agreement that climate change is a very important issue that needs to be addressed, with countries making a moral commitment to what they are putting on the table," he said.
"I think that will leave a lot to be completed in 2010."
The conference was called by the UN with the aim of thrashing out a binding agreement on targets for emissions reduction, but that now appears unlikely to be achieved and the focus is on the next best deal that leaders can cut.
Mr Key said the division between developed and developing countries had been clear for a long time.
"In the end, developed countries are expected to pay significant sums of money and they are expected to meet binding targets," he said.
"The question is what responsibility rests with developing countries...you can't solve climate change, which is a global issue, unless China, India and Brazil are part of the solution because they are very large emitters."
The Government's climate change strategy is based on an emissions trading scheme, passed by Parliament last month.
Targets are less ambitious than some other developed countries but Mr Key said the Government had a strong case to argue.
Reduction targets are based on 1990 levels and Mr Key said New Zealand's emissions had increased 24 percent since then.
"If we were to achieve something in the order of 10 percent to 20 percent below (1990 levels) we would need a 34 percent to 44 percent reduction, and that's a big ask."
NZPA