Watch what John Key is doing on Maori issues now - and remember it.
It's likely to lead to a 2011 election deal with the Maori Party. Maori want customary title to the Foreshore and Seabed and they want their customary rights enshrined in law.
And Key is sending all the right signals to the Maori Party that this can be achieved, as long as Pakeha rights and access for all is enshrined too.
So it's lucky for Pita Sharples and Tariana Turia that this is a different National Party outfit to the one campaigning on the beaches five years ago.
It's pretty obvious National and its current crop of ministers have suffered a serious bout of amnesia.
When current Finance Minister Bill English was the National Leader in 2003 he wrote this in the Southland Times; "When Maori ceded sovereignty to the Crown in 1840, they also ceded their right to customary title.
The law must make this clear. This is what National believes. This is what National would do.
Furthermore, title cannot be divided. It would give Maori rights beyond those of other New Zealanders.
The use of the foreshore and seabed is a right of all New Zealanders. "There must be no ambiguity." National will argue that was then and this is now.
Labour could of course use English's comments from 2003 and argue National was a divisive force a few years back. But then it would look divisive wouldn't it?
But who can really blame Labour for wanting to highlight National's politically expedient inconsistencies. Iwi/Kiwi billboards anyone?
Isn't it funny how Turia and Sharples have so quickly forgotten National's previous race-based campaigns? They have forgotten English's comments. Do they remember Don Brash's big night out in Orewa and how privileged Maori had become?
Anyway, lets look at what Key is up to.
Behind the scenes the Prime Minister is working on two crucial deals with the Maori Party - resolution to the Foreshore and Seabed debate, and giving Maori seats on the Auckland supercity council.
Key reckons he can strike a deal with the Maori Party without trading away the rights of Pakeha New Zealanders. He's probably right to be confident too. No one in Parliament wants to stir this up. No wants to create division. It's now in National's long term political interests to strike a deal.
Only Winston Peters can stir this up - and is he up to it? Does he want to? Does he have a platform - no longer. But if he wants one, he can probably get it. Would anyone listen, who knows.
But if Sharples and Turia can walk away happy - Maori will be happy. They will present to their people a resolution and more importantly, a victory - a win Labour refused to give them.
So Key will give them mana - and that appears to be the single most important thing to Turia and Sharples. In return, what will be Key's prize? Easy, a 2011 deal with the Maori Party.
National needs a sizeable coalition partner - the Maori Party is the obvious and only one with any grunt. Peter Dunne is a one man band without an audience and Act will always only offer a few seats.
So the Maori Party offer Key the seats he needs to get over the line. Without Sharples and co, Key could struggle to get a second term.
He wants a second term - he doesn't want the t-shirt saying: 'I was a one term PM.' And he's being helped by Labour and particularly tough old Trevor Mallard. Mallard appears to be alienating the Maori Party MPs as each day passes.
I couldn't help but witness the tension between Mallard and Hone Harawira and Te Ururoa Flavell in Parliament this week. The more Trevor needles them about their relationship with the Nats, the longer the marriage will last.
If Labour wants a shot in 2011, I suggest Goff grab Trevor by the neck and give him a smack in the chops - if he won't then at least get Tau Henare to throw in the peoples elbow.
Mallard is seriously affecting Labour's future chances of having any decent relationship with the Maori Party. One Maori Party MP this told me this week, "Trevor can get f..... and so can Labour in 2011."
So for Key the Foreshore and Seabed deal is the 2011 coalition handshake.
But the negotiations on Maori seats on the Auckland Supercity Council are just as important in many ways.
Key has become the chief negotiator with the Maori Party on this - and I think a deal will be struck. The bigger prize of course is being in Government. Key will not want an issue like this to get in the way of him becoming PM again in 2011.
But Local Government Minister Rodney Hide may be the one to watch here. He and Act believe Maori seats are racist. If Key strikes a deal, where does that leave Hide and his mana.
Could Rodney walk away as a minister? Perhaps - this is an interesting power struggle. Someone has to lose, and if the Maori party loses then so does Key. Key won't want that.
So the iwi-kiwi negotiations going on in the Beehive right now seem likely to shape who runs the Beehive post 2011.
Key, as we all know is a trader - he likes a deal - he also likes to win the deal.
And right now he has the Maori Party where he needs them. Remember, he never needed them to help him govern - they were a luxury - an extra. He offered them his hand - they won't forget that in a hurry.
Now he's about to repeal the Foreshore and Seabed Act.
Throw in a couple of Maori seats in Auckland and guess what - the 2011 coalition deal is signed and sealed.
Sorry Phil, Key may not be as inexperienced and naive after all.