By Duncan Garner
Phil Goff's about to embark on a seriously difficult job; reshuffling the Labour Caucus.
It's a tough job. It's one of the toughest in politics, it's much harder than most people think. He has to deal with misplaced egos, jealousies, rivalries, and worst of all, Labour's factions.
But this is a big opportunity for Phil Goff. It's a chance to further distance himself and the party from the perception that Helen Clark's trolls remain in charge under the bridge.
Clark actually never embarked on significant reshuffles herself. She did two. She was wary of them. Both came after her 2002 and 2005 election victories. They were neither big nor bold. She knew how unsettling they were for the caucus and the party. A big reshuffle will always put noses out of joint.
But there are some people Goff must reward.
A stand-out performer, overdue for a promotion to the front bench is the party's State Services and Tertiary Education spokesman Grant Roberston. I predict he will lead the party one day - so there's the kiss of death for him! Robertson must be looked after by Goff. He may get health, but there-in lies a big problem.
To be given health, and a front bench seat, someone has to be demoted. Ruth Dyson currently has health and has been around the party for a long time and will be hard to prise out of the portfolio and her front bench seat. But no one has a mortgage on their job. It's extremely complicated moving Dyson but she seems the obvious one to go, she's the most vulnerable.
Look at the front bench, Goff, King, Mallard, David Parker, Cunliffe, Dyson, Cosgrove, Street, Horomia, Mahuta and Chauvel.
Mahuta and Chauvel were only appointed late last year. They can't be demoted so early, nor do they deserve to go. Chauvel appears to be working hard. Street will stay where she is because I'm told it's about "balance." Horomia is the senior Maori MP. Mallard is nailing Anne Tolley. Parker is critical to the party's economic development. Cunliffe stays. Cosgrove performs most weeks. King won't be going anywhere until she wants to. She's tough as teak. But Dyson is vulnerable and is being lined up.
My sources indicate to me that Dyson may have accepted her fate and will announce she's "stepping down" to take less of a frontline role. It doesn't mean she's retiring from politics, it means she's moving off the frontbench. The deal, the swap allows Robertson to take her spot.
The other interesting movement could be around Mahuta. I understand she too may ease herself off the frontbench. She has a baby and that certainly is complicating. But Mahuta may have decided to have a second child, and that would certainly see her move off the front bench. I don't know if she's having a second child, and it's a very personal thing, but for family reasons Mahuta may also put her hand up to stand aside, rather than stand down.
There are many empty seats (due to retirements) in the middle benches which makes it easy for Goff to reshuffle talent on the backbenches into the middle.
Watch for MPs like Jacinda Ardern, David Shearer, Kelvin Davis, Stuart Nash and Phil Twyford, among others, to pick up new responsibilities.
And that leaves Shane Jones. He's currently out of a job. He is an MP without a single portfolio. That has to change and my sources indicate it will. Jones is too talented to leave idle.
He is running against Pita Sharples in Tamaki Makaurau. Goff must, and I understand will give him a half decent job, a role that helps his profile.
He has done his time. He has paid the price for his midnight movies and munches.
It won't be a massive reshuffle. But my pick is Grant Robertson will be the big winner. Dyson may go down. And there'll be a heap of movement in the middle. And Jones will be back.
Watch out for the announcement later this week.