Libyan rebels have entered Tripoli and are making their way to the city centre in what Otago University Professor of International Relations Robert Patman says could become “a grand battle for Tripoli”.
Mr Patman joined Firstline this morning to discuss the situation in Libya – where to next for the country, and why Moammar Gadhafi hasn’t yet backed down.
Colonel Gadhafi has so far refused to concede defeat, something Mr Patman says is in keeping with his behaviour throughout the rebellion.
“It may be more of the sort of delusionary behaviour that Gadhafi has demonstrated throughout this crisis – he never really seriously seemed to have entertained an exit from this situation,” he says.
Mr Patman says Gadhafi’s refusal to back down is “a strength and weakness” and may be in part an attempt to reduce any wavering among his supporters.
“I suppose he’s hoping to rally his loyalists in Libya and quite frankly, when a regime depends so much on one person… if the person at the top is seen to lose their nerve you can have a quick collapse.”
If the regime does collapse Mr Patman says NATO will want to avoid “a sort of Iraq scenario” where the sudden change inspires ongoing fighting for control of the country.
“They don’t want a situation where there’s a power vacuum and brutal infighting and revenge killings,” he says.
“There are reports that NATO chiefs have been in close discussions with the rebels to try and make sure there’s no revenge killings and that there’s a relatively smooth transition.”
Watch the video for the full interview
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