After more than 50 years of increasing cancer rates in New Zealand, latest Ministry of Health projections paint a more promising picture.
They show for the first time the overall risk is likely to stabilise for men and decline by up to 11 percent for women over the next decade.
However, an increasing and ageing population still means the number of people living with cancer is likely to increase by about 12 percent in women and a more substantial 29 percent in men, according to the Cancer Projections report.
Cancer is the second leading cause of death in New Zealand, with about 18,500 new cases reported each year.
The forecast improvement in risk represented "a notable public health success story" after more than half a century of steadily increasing cancer rates, the ministry said.
The greatest risk reductions were projected for tobacco-related cancers.
Among other cancers, the greatest improvements in risk should be seen in colorectal cancer in both sexes (even without an organised screening programme), stomach cancer (both sexes), and cervical and ovarian cancers in females.
By contrast, the risk of thyroid cancer (both sexes), primary liver cancer (both sexes), and lymphomas and prostate cancer in men was expected to increase.
Importantly, breast cancer risk was expected to stabilise, while the risk of melanoma was projected to stabilise in men and may actually drop slightly for women.
Professor Tony Blakely, of Otago University's Wellington campus, said the stabilising of cases should be celebrated.
"We hope it's a turning point," he said.
Public health campaigns about cervical cancer and against smoking were thought to have contributed to the improving statistics.
One of the biggest concerns remained the rise in leukaemia, lymphoma and thyroid cancer.
"They are steadily going up and we don't know why," Dr Blakely said.
Up-to-date cancer projections were useful for planning of cancer services and projecting requirements for the oncology workforce, the ministry said.
Pressure on cancer services has been mounting after four specialists stepped down within months of each other.
Wellington oncologist Peter Dady resigned in the middle of last year, while two long-serving cancer doctors will leave Christchurch Hospital at the end of March to go into private practice.
Another senior position has been vacant at Palmerston North Hospital since early last year and a locum hired to make up the shortfall has just resigned.
Three newly trained oncologists have been appointed to replace the outgoing Christchurch specialists, but Capital and Coast District Health Board still has not found a new oncologist to replace Dr Dady.
Waiting times at Wellington Hospital have already increased and cancer patients may end up having to travel for treatment if hospitals cannot keep their oncology teams fully staffed.
Earlier this year, Wellington's child cancer unit was downgraded after Capital and Coast was unable to recruit permanent paediatric oncologists. Children were being sent to Christchurch and Auckland for treatment.
NZPA