By Peter Wilson
Labour's Louisa Wall says she has the numbers to get her gay marriage bill through its first reading tonight.
“I think that my MP colleagues across the house are
committed to ensuring that New Zealanders have an opportunity through our
democratic process to have a say about what the relevance of marriage equality
is to them, and so I am confident about tonight’s vote,” she told Firstline
this morning.
Although Ms Wall believes the bill has more than the 61 votes it needs, more than a third of MPs refuse to say how they're going to vote.
Prime Minister John Key thinks it will pass and so does Labour leader David Shearer, but they don't have any control over their MPs because conscience votes will be cast.
That means no party instructions for any of parliament's 121 MPs, and Ms Wall needs 61 of them to back her bill so it can go to a select committee for public submissions.
Ms Wall is probably right, but opponents are sending a deluge of emails to MPs as lobbying intensifies ahead of the vote and some could be swayed at the last minute.
“People are playing on the fears of our community and saying
that our ministers and celebrants will be forced to marry same-sex couples… I’m
a bit upset about the fact there are mistruths,” Ms Wall says.
All 14 Green MPs, the Maori Party's three MPs, Mana Party leader Hone Harawira and United future leader Peter Dunne are supporting the bill. Ms Wall says the support from party leaders shows how important the bill is.
“The leadership within the political parties recognise that
this issue is one of human rights, it’s one of ensuring that we don’t
discriminate any citizen within our country,” she says.
At least 16 of Labour's 34 MPs are expected to vote for it, and Mr Key says he thinks 12 or 13 of his 58 MPs will back it.
The bill's backers think that's a conservative estimate.
ACT leader John Banks is a surprise supporter - he told media yesterday he would vote for the bill on its first reading but wouldn't guarantee his backing beyond that.
When Mr Banks was a National MP in 1986 he voted against homosexual law reform, saying when the bill was passed it was "a sad and sickening day for New Zealand".
NZ First's eight MPs are expected to oppose the bill because they want the Government to call a referendum on gay marriage, which isn't likely.
NZN