Major quake could cost Wellington $37 billion

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Fri, 17 Feb 2012 7:59a.m.

Wellington City Council is looking to speed up earthquake-strengthening work on buildings (AAP)

Wellington City Council is looking to speed up earthquake-strengthening work on buildings (AAP)

A major earthquake in Wellington could cost the city's economy $37 billion, cut off transport and communications and cause many key businesses and services to flee.

A new Wellington City Council report into the city's earthquake resilience says the cost could be nearly twice the $20bn hit Christchurch's economy took following its major earthquake last February, according to reports.

Wellington Mayor Celia Wade-Brown says the city has few options for relocating businesses to its outskirts, as happened in Christchurch.

"Indeed, for many corporates (and potentially government), relocation to another centre may be a preferred option," she said.

The report, which will be presented to the council's strategy and policy committee next week, also raises concerns about 435 unreinforced masonry buildings which could crumble, blocking major transport routes around the city.

Unreinforced masonry buildings have been highlighted as a quake risk at the Royal Commission into the Christchurch earthquakes.

The Cook Strait communications cable, and power and gas in the capital, are also vulnerable.

Wellington City Council is looking to speed up earthquake-strengthening work on buildings, including discussions with banks about repaying loans to strengthen buildings with targeted rates that would remain with a building, not a individual, if sold.

However, that move would require legislative change.

The report suggests including $1.4 million in the council's long-term plan to help identify at-risk buildings, and assist building owners to finance strengthening work.

The council is planning to lobby the government for a scheme to help pay for quake-strengthening.

It will close the city's town hall for up to two years from the second half of next year to strengthen the building that was opened in 1904.

NZN

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Comments

17 Feb 2012 06:20p.m.

RussF wrote:

On reflection Christchurch unexpectedly suffered the calamity that has long been predicted for Wellington. The reason being that while the Hororata /Rolleston Greendale fault line was known to exit, the Sumner/Lyttleton and recent Pegasus Bay fault lines were never discussed. By comparison Wellington is sited on a major fault line with the potential of releasing far more energy than anything seen in Christchurch. In addition Wellington CBD is sited on reclaimed sea floor and any repeat of the Hawkes Bay earthquake would see the lower city devastated and probably under water. The higher density of population and a high-rise reclaimed and hillside located city will hold few comparisons to the flat plains and spread out population of Christchurch. Just how much did the Council pay for their $37 Billion guesstimate? Surely the Japanese experience would indicate a far higher cost. Loss and relocation of the Commercial and Political CBD let alone clean up could realistically top $150 Billion, a cost that New Zealand just could not afford without some form of emergency insurance and international aid package.

17 Feb 2012 12:26p.m.

Neil wrote:

When I first arrived in 1969 I was warmly welcomed by fellow workers by the standard "You know Wellington is overdue for a big one don't you?" Well I'm still here and so is Wellington - touch wood it won't happen in my lifetime - geology is extremely old..as we have found with Christchurch.

17 Feb 2012 11:40a.m.

Martin wrote:

I lost count on my fingers. Doesn't matter anyway as my estimate is only $60 million based on the population x $12.50 per cup of coffee.

17 Feb 2012 10:35a.m.

Gary wrote:

Fear what an interesting emotion. How to create legislation to engineer against the forces of nature? I think it is great to move forward building stronger and safer buildings using the new technology but we should understand that the earth is not a solid rock that never changes. It is a continuosly shifting and changing planet in all directions on a massive scale. Whole continents move, land rises and falls. Increased knowledge of our planet may show us where to build. Lets just hope then that global warming is a mythe as partial melting of the ice caps would raise sea levels approx 6M and total melting over 20M. Although global warming could bring about an ice age so we do live on a knife edge. Not to mention earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis. Anyway its comforting to know that legislation and money will solve the problem. Hooray for the council!!

17 Feb 2012 09:59a.m.

James wrote:

Why not make it $40 billion ??? ... I can guess as well as the next man !! Cheers, James.

17 Feb 2012 09:46a.m.

Ruz wrote:

The Wellington City Council has known for decades about the earthquake risks for the city. It's only recently that they have given their attention to the actual implications of a large earthquake event. It's a pity for example, that they and the Government did not recognise much earlier the need for stronger structures and for redevelopment work to comply with better standards. As I see it, the horse has bolted and remedial and protection work for the entire infrastructure at risk which as pointed out will cost billions. Councils everywhere are in panic mode as they begin to identify structures that could collapse in a severe earthquake. I haven't seen such kneejerk reactions since Y2K.