By Patrick Gower
Hone Harawira clearly wants to take over the Maori Party. It was the signs outside his "disciplinary hearing" saying "Hone's the Man!" and "change the leadership!" that gave the game away.
I've suspected the Harawira-as-leader plan for a while now, and blogged on it last week.
Events this week have made it a little clearer. I just want to break it down a bit here.
So why do I think its Plan A?
1. The language change - not ruling it out.
Harawira's been peddling a "I don't have the tact and diplomacy to be leader, I'm an activist to my bones" line. That language shifted this week. In my one-on-one interview on Wednesday where he referred to John Key as a "smiling assassin", Harawira refused to rule out taking the leadership if called upon by the Maori Party support base.
Watch Patrick Gower’s full interview with Hone Harawira here.
2. "Change the leaders"
Then there is of course the "change the leaders sign" at the hui yesterday. They're obviously for Harawira. He claimed on Morning Report this morning that he didn't know the signs were there. I burst out laughing: I watched his brother Tai get them out of a Harawira emblazoned vehicle, and put them up under instructions from their mum, Titewhai.
Of course they are the Tai Tokerau faithful but as the electorate chair Lisa McNabb pointed out, it’s the electorate with the biggest number of Maori Party members. But one of the other resolutions from the meeting is a thinly veiled part of the leadership campaign. They want Harawira to tour the country, discussing the issues he raised in the Sunday Star-Times. This would be dangerous for the Maori Party - essentially signing off on him to galvanise the campaign beyond the Tai Tokerau.
3. The split party - and Hone's total committment to it.
For me, there have been two key events illustrating this plan. I was at both of them. One is obviously yesterday's hui. The other was last year's Maori Party conference. This is where a Maori Party deeply divided over the foreshore and seabed became apparent. Harawira and the Tai Tokerau on one side, with plenty of support - the rest of the party on the other. Harawira delivered what I am on record as saying was the best political speech of the year where he signalled total commitment to the Maori Party. It was essentially a leadership speech. He also showed his disdain for co-leader Pita Sharples' performance, saying what he'd do with certain education and penal issues (Sharples' portfolios) and there was also hissing and jibes shouted out from the floor from Hone's supporters during Sharples' speech.
Pita Sharples also let slip to Noelle McCarthy on Radio NZ last week, that Hone may well be after the leadership. Of course Harawira denies it, he doesn't want to leave the party and out-and-out leadership ambitions would totally damage his case. He really wants to avoid the "You're not in the Maori Party now, Doctor Harawira" scenario.
4. Being Hone
Hone Harawira has natural leadership skills. He's been building towards this for years, he's been put on a pedestal and held up as a chief. But he's also worked hard, with the support of wife Hilda and mum Titewhai. He is very organised: and doesn't really need a spin doctor or adviser - his political skills have been honed over four decades and he is in his prime. He is viewed, and no doubt views himself as a "chosen one". Besides, I have never heard of a politician who doesn't want to be leader - they don't exist.
5. How it would work
Hone is on record to my boss Duncan Garner last year as saying he doesn't want to take over from Pita Sharples, and that he believes Te Ururoa Flavell would be better. Well, for starters: things have changed. Flavell is the one who's leading the complaint against him. But I don't think Harawira has ever thought taking over is a straight away thing. He knows Sharples will likely go soon, at least as leader - he is 70 this year. I've said before, Harawira might not respect Sharples any more, but he does respect Tarian Turia. He would maybe wait for her to go too. She is 67 this year - and at one stage wasn't going to stand this term anyway. Hone is 55. In time, they will both be gone - the party could be his, even as a sole leader. Then he could realise his goal of going into coalition with the Greens and holding the balance of power over both Labour and National. There could also be new Maori party MPs in Hauraki-Waikato or Ikaroa-Rawhit that swing his way.
6. So what's Plan B?
Of course Harawira could get kicked out. This may not come to pass - but it doesn't mean its not Harawira's plan; I'm sure he wants to stay in. However, the party may decide he is becoming too dangerous and get rid of him. Obviously he would go out in a blaze of glory and win as an independent. So what of this "Left party"? It would dilute his goals for Maori, be hard to set up. The Maori party has the infrastructure, the brand, the membership and the history he wants. I'd say independent would be the Plan B - with a comeback in time still on the cards.