The recent increase in Customs seizures of the methamphetamine precursor pseudoephedrine may increase profits for "P" dealers, says anti-drugs campaigner Mike Sabin.
Prime Minister John Key said yesterday that Customs had intercepted 230kg of pseudoephedrine over the past two months and 15 arrests had been made since the Government adopted stronger measures against P, including redeployment of Customs staff.
"Customs advises that this is the most successful eight weeks on record, stopping what would have been an estimated $84 million worth of P hitting the streets with all the consequent harm that causes," Mr Key said.
He cited anecdotal evidence that the price of the drug has increased on the streets.
Mr Sabin, of the Methcon Group, said the border interdictions were pleasing but also a double-edged sword.
Much of New Zealand's appetite for P was being fed by suppliers of the key precursor from China, he said, and the seizure levels reflected an escalation of imports of this product over the past five years.
"Between 2004 and 2008 seizures have gone from on average of one per day to five and over this time Customs seized over 1750 kg of Chinese pseudoephedrine called Contac NT, which would be enough to have made around over half a tonne of P, with 2009 likely to be the worst year yet," he said.
But with Customs and law enforcement estimates that they seize about 10-20 percent of imported precursor, it would be "naive" to assume they intercepted more than half of what was being smuggled in - despite the added focus at the border, he added.
"The issue then arises that some of the supply chain is broken, but not enough to stifle the market demand, which results in pushing the price up and in turn incentivises other suppliers to enter the market or increase their shipments, knowing that more will be intercepted, but the added profit margins will make up this ground," Mr Sabin said.
He said that at the same time the supply was being disrupted, demand had to driven down through P prevention strategies combined with ready access to abstinence-based treatment.
NZPA