Wed, 05 May 2010 5:28a.m.
By Duncan Garner
There's either something in the Afghani air, or the Americans have put something in John Key's coffee. I'm picking both.
Key's trip to visit the Kiwi troops in Kabul and Bamyan has had a massive effect on our foreign policy.
See a photo gallery of the people, culture and landscape of Kabul and Bamyan where Key visited
We now know Key is openly considering keeping 20-25 SAS troops in Kabul past March next year - when he said he would pull them out.
In political terms he's considering back-tracking - Phil Goff calls it a flip-flop.
Just last week he told my colleague here at 3 News, Patrick Gower, that the SAS deployment would not be extended. His visit has clearly affected him.
The US has also been in his ear. Biting it perhaps.
And now he says the Provincial Reconstruction team in Bamyan will stay on till at least 2015. Yes, 2015.
That means our Kiwi troops in the Bamyan Province would have been at war for 12 years.
Key says about 50 of the 140 troops will stay on. They'll be mainly civilians. He says the military component of the PRT will pull out after September 2011.
But it's a massive sign that this war has gone wrong.
No one knows who the enemy is anymore.
Key told me today it's the Taliban, other insurgents, corrupt leaders, drug lords and Al Qaeda - that means the coalition of 120,000 troops are fighting fewer than 20,000 people perhaps. And it still can't win. It still can't get on top.
It's a complex place Afghanistan. It's been at war for decades. Its history is based on centuries of fighting. That's why the head of the international force, US General Stanley McChrystal has asked Key and other leaders to stick with him. There's a new offensive coming in the south to take on the Taliban - who apparently number just 10,000 men.
They are difficult to nail. They are recruiting all the time. They cross the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan daily. Pakistan harbours them, the occupying forces in Afghanistan are struggling to get them.
So I've left Afghanistan with some strong conclusions.
I don't think anyone can win this war.
I don't think this war will end - certainly not anytime soon.
If it does and all the troops exit the country - the Taliban will probably move to control some areas.
A US report says they already have supporters across different provinces – people who are opposed to President Karzai.
And the worst thing is this; should the forces leave a place like Bamyan, schools like the one I visited educating hundreds of young girls would likely close down. The Taliban hiding in the northern part of the province would be into the valley and, my bet is, the school would be torched.
Young boys from the school down the road already throw rocks at the windows.
Even now it's a fragile situation with the Kiwi presence. Our troops are effectively providing security to keep the Taliban away.
But how long can that last?
3 News