National slips a little in poll, but still going strong

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Sun, 29 May 2011 6:00p.m.

The National Party still holds what can only be described as a commanding lead

The National Party still holds what can only be described as a commanding lead

By Duncan Garner

National has taken a hit in the polls, following its budget which made cuts to the popular KiwiSaver scheme.

Labour has been the major beneficiary, it's received it's largest boost ever in our 3 News Reid Research poll.

National not only cut KiwiSaver but made other cuts in the budget and a chunk of voters have been left unimpressed, but the party still holds what can only be described as a commanding lead.


  • National is down 4.5 percent to 53 percent. They were at 57.5 percent, but that was an inflated number after Prime Minister John Key's exposure after the Christchurch earthquake.
  • Labour picks up 5.7 points to 32.8 percent, bringing them back to a more respectable number but not enough to govern.
  • The Greens have lost 1 percent.
  • New Zealand first is going nowhere.
  • The ACT Party makes little impact, sitting at 2.2 percent. A small rise, up 0.5 points, but the same result as Rodney Hide had this time last year.
  • The Maori Party is at 1.6 percent, down on the last result, but Hone Harawira’s Mana Party is at 0.5 percent while Peter Dunne’s UnitedFuture rated 0.2 percent.

In the preferred prime minister stakes, Key is down 4 points to 48.2 percent, Labour’s Phil Goff is up a bit to 7.6 percent, but not all Labour voters are voting for him personally.

Helen Clark is up, while Winston Peters is steady and Brash makes an appearance at 1 percent.

So while National has taken a hit in this poll, it’s still fair to say the party has a big lead and in pole position to govern again later in the year.

So despite National's drop, John Key will be largely relieved that he and National walk away relatively unscathed after the budget. National was very high and Labour very low on the previous 3 News poll, so it could be argued this is just a realigning of support.

National's cutting KiwiSaver, selling assets, trimming Working for Families and making cuts to the public service, and it's still polling 53 percent after a deep three year recession and the economy is still flat.

Don Brash's high profile stabbing in the front of Rodney Hide hasn't yet worked, if anything, Brash has fallen off the radar in recent weeks and has failed to take advantage of the takeover. Voters seem unconvinced, so ACT has some work to do.

For Phil Goff it's still much the same, he's irrelevant in the preferred prime minister stakes and at 33 percent, Labour will not govern. They are at least five or six percent short of being in the race and there's no sign he can get Labour to that point at this stage.

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Comments

03 Jun 2011 11:47a.m.

jackp wrote:

The Horizon Polls say differently. NZfirst and Act are over the 5 percent, National has taken a hit and wouldn't be able to lead alone. The figures Duncan Gardner are delivering are a lot higher for the 2 main parties. Something is wrong. I tend to believe the Horizon Polls because the Digipolls leave out the undecided which have an impact on the voting results. They also include those who are not elgible to vote. So, if you don't want to vote National or Labour, your vote is NOT wasted!

02 Jun 2011 11:30a.m.

Kiwi wrote:

Duncan Garner..Where do you get your figures from?That's what they are, just figures, certainly not facts! You need to remove your National blinkers or better still, stop hallucinating.When you say New Zealand First is going nowhere, you obviously are far far away from reality.Wake up, November is just round the corner and the support that New Zealand First has, is beyond your imagination.

30 May 2011 02:22p.m.

brian wrote:

How is it Helen Clarke "is up"? Up what? How can it be she is still "an option"? The polling criteria appears it must be in a shambles if "long gone" has beens are still rateable in any poll.

Re the "preferred Party" ratings:
Yes National lost ground, and will lose much more but it could regain a huge ammount of support if it could "see reason" and ditch the bloody ridiculous Carbon Tax THEFT that is robbing all NZ'ers blind and won't affect "Global Warming" or what is now called - euphamistically - "Climate Change" because "who knows" which way it will "change" only that it will, THAT is the inevitable. The Sun is the major arbitrator there, influenced by volcanic activity, both we will never control and neither caused by, or addressable by "man". If the "TAX" was to address the real "man made" polluticants ie inorganic - unnatural poisons - pesticides, insecticides, fumigants etc (rather than "C" or "CO2" methane, SO2 and the likes - farts - which are all 5/8ths of FA in any equation, except those "created" by Al Gore and those other "trough slurpers" within the IPPC and its cohorts) then we might start making progress.

30 May 2011 09:41a.m.

Clarke wrote:

The reality of a National ACt coalition is that some of the following programmes will be cut or affected. National Super - ACT wants to increase the age of retirement. Working for Families - ACT would prefer to axe this programme Interest Free student loans - ACT want to bring back interest payments Asset sales - ACT want more complete sales of state assets. So one or more of ACTS policies will be instituted, in a coalition arrangement National will have to give something to ACT. So who is it going to negatively affect? the elderly? Families? students? or all of us in the form of increased asset sales?. The next government is set to hurt the people of New Zealand, thats what educated people know Jeremy.

30 May 2011 09:40a.m.

Tim wrote:

Duncan Garner..As much as you would like this Government re elected its not going to happen. When you look at all main issues they have put to the public since they have been in Government fall short with people opposed at around 70%,Lets see what happens in November...

30 May 2011 08:02a.m.

jeremy wrote:

Very pleasing to see the majority of New Zealanders are educated people.

29 May 2011 11:57p.m.

bOb wrote:

lol at National being honest, i almost doubt your a real labour supporter Bryan at the very least they are as bad as Labour, National certainly are looking after their own kind first, nzers come way at the end of the list. No i dont trust Labour either but suggesting national is more honest is a big gullible kiwi joke.

29 May 2011 08:12p.m.

flossie wrote:

National, don't hold your breath. Sales of national assets are disturbing people.

29 May 2011 07:55p.m.

James J.Read wrote:

I breathed a sigh of relief of reading the poll results. It demonstrated very clearly that the public do not support race based parties as Hone Harawira and Peta Sharples will learn.It is also clear that the rabidly anti-asian New Zealand First has a very small support base.THese 3 parties can be expected to pass into history on November 26th.

29 May 2011 07:27p.m.

Sue wrote:

When are all the pollsters going to give accurate information about exactly how they conducted the polling, over what dates and at what time, total numbers actually polled, how many people refused to answer and how many were undecided? Once all this information is also available alongside the poll results it might give a far better indication of what voters are actually thinking. At the moment I am fairly sure that there are many undecided voters and this is never revealed although it used to be.