By Patrick Gower
So National has delivered the "Double Down Budget" - just like the KFC burger, some major parts of popular policies have been stripped away.
National can't rip the guts off the policies it hates, so it goes for a more surgical, marketing-based solution to keep the voters happy.
Kiwisaver
Take Kiwisaver. National has stripped half of the $1043 credit away - the burger buns if you will.
You and your employer will have to pay 3 percent to 1 percent more.
And there’s a nasty wee surprise – the employer contribution will now be taxed before it gets to you. Sneaky.
You pay more, but get far less bang for your buck. It's a hammer blow. The biggest hit of the budget.
But the actual burger - KiwiSaver itself - is still intact... kind of.
John Key's National Government is betting this will keep the punters happy. He’ll put it on the line at the election and seek a mandate.
So this is what I call the "Double Down effect" or "Double Down politics".
National don't destroy popular polices, they just start to slowly dismantle them. It is kind of a halfway house – the popular policy like Kiwisaver is still there – it just isn’t believed in, or invested in as it was before. Shop window stuff.
National is getting very good at this - its core business for them.
It’s clever politics, but weak economics. Is this really the kind of structural change that can turn the economy around? No. It is a steady-as-she goes way to win an election.
Every year the commentariat gives the budget a name: the black Budget, the blue Budget, the grey Budget, the placebo Budget, the block of cheese Budget. I've heard them all.
So I'm call this the "Double Down" budget. Another cunning marketing sop.
We see Double Down deployed elsewhere – but not as hard as with Kiwisaver.
Working for Families
Let's take Working for Families.
Key and Bill English hate this policy. It costs $2.8 billion a year. They can't find a way around it.
So they have made cuts of averaging $112 million a year. Pretty small part of $2.8 billion. English calls it trimming. Some families are going to lose a couple of bucks, some families are going to get a couple of bucks more.
So more "Double Down" politics. They can't get rid of the whole thing, so they have started getting rid of some of the fillings.
Student loans
The same goes for interest-free Student Loans - another policy National hates.
Tertiary Education Steven Joyce can't get in and rip the guts out, so he's gone and tinkered around the edges and removed a few bits and pieces.
Over-55s can still get student loans for tuition fees, but not living costs.. Part-time full year students can’t get course-related costs. The repayment holiday down to one year, you’ve got to give a contact person. Tinkering.
Public Sector
Another area is the Public Sector.
Life is going to start getting even more uncomfortable for public servants; $980 million – effectively $1 billion dollars – in savings over three years.
If you keep your job, don't expect a pay rise for the next couple of years. And get ready to put up with mergers and restructuring and changes.
National is going to make all the Government departments cover their own Superannuation costs - KiwiSaver and the teachers and state sector funds. Some of this is currently centrally funded – departments will pick this up, no doubt at the expense of other things.
One gets the feeling National would like to strip away public sector funding a bit quicker. They are start to speed up at least.
They've well and truly decided they aren't going to loses any votes in Auckland and around the country by attacking the bureaucracy.
Key, English and Joyce have been the masterminds behind this Double Down politics for a while now.
State Owned Enterprises
The sale of State Owned Enterprises is a key example. A partial sell-down, again with a mandate sought at the election.
That’s Double Down politics. A dismantling - removing the buns from the burgers, but not enough to scare the punters. And of course, a bit of confusion about what the changes actually mean helps Double Down politics.
We saw Double Down with the changes to Early Childhood Education in last year's budget - the 20 hours free childcare was safe - but $280 million was cut overall over four years. Those effects are starting to come through now, but the popular policy was kept intact.
The one part of the Double Down effect that Key, English and Joyce are yet to master is that those bunless burgers are actually more popular than the old version.
That would be too much to ask - cuts and zero budgets aren't tasty, no matter how you dress them up.
So Double Down politics are effective.
But like the burger it is all about marketing.
Is it bold? No. Does it really address the record $16.7 billion deficit? It is a start – tinkering. But the real question is - will it keep John Key’s Government popular? Because that’s the plan.