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3 News poll shows National likely to win election

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National leader John Key

National leader John Key

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Sun, 20 Jul 2008 12:00a.m.

The National Party could govern with unbridled power on the evidence of tonight's 3 News political poll. However the gap has closed slightly between Labour and National.

The Labour Party's attacks on National leader John Key and the policy of the National party have made some difference, with Labour managing to regain some lost ground.

In the 3 News poll, National looks to be firmly in control at 48 percent, while Labour sits steady at 35 percent.

Meanwhile the Greens have moved up to seven percent, followed by NZ First who nudge up to four percent, and look set to reach the crucial MMP threshold of five percent.

The Maori Party came in at two percent, followed by Act at one percent and trailing at 0.3 percent was United Future.

Using the figures from the poll, in parliament National would govern alone with 62 seats and could get help from Act or United Future if it needed.

Labour would have 45 seats and the Greens would have nine. The Maori Party would have four seats and Progressive one.

Prime Minister Helen Clark has kept the heat on John Key's experience and leadership in the past month and perhaps it has been working.

Mr Key has lost three points in the preferred Prime Minister stakes to come in at 32 percent, while Helen Clark is down one point to 28 percent.

Winston Peters still has his small band of followers, as he comes in at six percent, while National's Bill English manages to come in at three percent.

Last week, Helen Clark responded to a question about John Key and Bill English both being on holiday at the same time, suggesting that National MPs did not work as hard as their Labour counterparts.

However John Key says he feels that she is being ridiculous and makes no apologies for taking a couple of days off to spend some time with his family.

Voters were asked if they felt that Miss Clark's attack on Mr Key was personal or based on policy. Sixty-nine percent responded by saying it was a personal attack, 16 percent felt it was based on policy and the remaining 15 percent said that they did not know.

However, Helen Clark's attacks over the last few weeks have been mostly fair and based on National's rollout of new policy.

Miss Clark is testing John Key's ability to be Prime Minister - which the 3 News poll shows he will likely be in a few months.

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Comments [10]

alan
23 Jul 2008 4:56p.m.

If there is one thing that convinces me that the average voter shouldn't be trusted with democracy and actually being allowed to vote, as Winston Churchill famously remarked, it is 'results' such as these polls. Yawn. National is amazing in that it has no policy, has a leader who is pretty naive, but somehow manages to convince people it has a 'right' to govern. Tax cuts - what a have. It's abysmal to think that people are being hooked by such rot. Tax cuts may happen, but do any of you who bleat on about it even think for five minutes as to what that actually means??? Where are your cuts going to come from. Well, how about slashing any public help. People over a certain income go private anyway, so tax cuts Do Not Matter to such people. The real people to be whacked will be the very ones bleating like morons about their supposed sudden rise in income once National hoodwinks its way in. It won't happen. As for the self-made man bit, what a complete joke - as are the comments about honesty and integrity. C'mon, that's pulling a big one, honestly. National can't be honest, or upfront about policies at this point, even this close to the election, for the simple reason it has no policy, only whatever is populist, and should it reveal it's policy, it would be out of favour. In other words, the middle NZ, those pack of whiners going on about their supposed tax cuts, will find out they'll be hit with higher costs in health, education, social services and just about everything else to fund their paltry add-on to the weekly pay cheque. Honestly, some people really shouldn't have the right to vote, this is how people like Bush get elected...

Alex
23 Jul 2008 7:56a.m.

"after nine years of promised tax cut at election time"

This hasn't been the case. There was some murmuring about possible cuts to income tax after the 2005 election.

Also, I always wonder how people think tax cuts are meant to work. The only change in income tax since National lost in 1999 has been to raise the top bracket from 33c to 39c, which affected hardly anyone. Are we supposed to have endless tax cuts until there's no tax at all? There are times when we need higher taxes, and it's sometimes desirable. It's not a static "lowering tax is better - always".

ell
22 Jul 2008 10:41p.m.

you forget the brethren voters this time round and they will be a big part of the elections. also Kiwis in aus don't favor Labour after nine years of promised tax cut at election time that never really eventuated for them.

homer
22 Jul 2008 7:24a.m.

Deanne, having seen a lot of your posts it's quite obvious you are a staunch Labour supporter, boy are you going to be disappointed come election!

John, Lower Hutt
22 Jul 2008 12:34a.m.

National will use their first term in Government to condition us for privatisation.

Deane Bird
21 Jul 2008 10:38p.m.

Looking at this poll. Labour only needs a swing of between 3 to 4%.

Lets look at the figures

Labour 45 Seats

Green 9 seats

Maori Party 4 seats

New Zealand first ??

Without taking New Zealand first, Progressive New Zealand and Unite First we have

National 62

Labour coalition 58.

More precisely at present I see

National 59

Coalition 61, because Jim Anderton will win his seat, so will Rodny Hide and Peter Dunn, but at Nationals expense.

It will be interesting to see.

The point I like to point out, that under polling National may be lucky with a lead of 4 seats. That is bound to change.

We could even have a hung parliment.

What is important here is that National is not looking so pretty as the media are painting out, and there may be a lot of red faces after these elections.

This is why National is relying on Act to destroy Peters.

National is relying on populist views to goven. Its time they should be forced their hand on releasing policy.


maurice
21 Jul 2008 4:35p.m.

Yes us kiwis are sick of Labour. BUT !!! would National please be honest with what they intend to do with our state assets, and not just for the first term.
I was one who threw you out for selling them.........

Alex
21 Jul 2008 10:06a.m.

"Thank christ,or whoever,that Kiwis are starting to realize just how bad another labour government would be for New Zealand."

Labour's done more for us than National ever has. The only people who really complain are those on over $100k a year which is a very small part of the population.

"self-made man"

Who or what is (or isn't) a self made man/woman? I've never sen a definition for it and the only consistency I can pick out when people use it is "rich". Look I'm sure he "worked hard" and all that, but really, there's no amount of work that makes someone deserve as much money as John Key has while someone else struggles away on minimum wage. That someone else probably works very hard and endures a lot more hardship than someone like John Key.

Is it because he "grew up in a state house"? Apparently he's embellished a bit on that - it was only a brief stint in his life. It's funny how right wingers love someone who managed to "make good" but absolutely despise all the ones who don't, calling them "lazy" or "bludgers", while completely ignoring how much more difficult it is for those people to "make good" than it is for them.

Rev
21 Jul 2008 10:05a.m.

As i said Clark (its over)also National better b careful,(they won't be getting in that easy either)Neither party has a exceptable pass-history,so alot of votes will support fully the party they have been with and continue to do so.

Bob Baillie
20 Jul 2008 10:51p.m.

Thank christ,or whoever,that Kiwis are starting to realize just how bad another labour government would be for New Zealand.Clark and her bunch of rags are well past their 'use by' date,about nine years by my reckoning.It will be great to see a government lead by a self-made man,who,I'm sure will bring a level of honesty and integrity back into government that has not been seen for many years.I,for one,would consider moving back to N.Z. following a successful National party election campaign.
Incidentally,who really believes Winston only just found out about the $1000,000.00 donation?Pull the other one Winnie.

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