Opinion: Goff is safe - for now

Mon, 07 Dec 2009 1:55p.m.

Phil Goff

By Duncan Garner

Phil Goff is to face his caucus tomorrow over 'concerns' emerging out of his 'nationhood' speech to Grey Power 10 days ago.

From what I have been able to confirm, the concerns are centred on Goff's comments over the Foreshore and Seabed law.

Goff suggested in the speech that the Foreshore and Seabed law was working well and may not need changing, like Labour had suggested earlier in the year.

So given that, Labour MPs started asking Goff questions about this 'change in position'.

So that's where the concerns lie, apparently. And Goff and some of his MPs will discuss that 'change of position' tomorrow.

One of those concerned is Wellington Central MP Grant Robertson. There are others. But I want to put this on record; I think the area of concern is narrow. Goff's leadership is not on the line.

In my opinion he is safe as leader and he will be the leader going into the 2011 election. I've spoken to a number of frontbench and middle-ranked MPs today - not one said this is a leadership spill.

Unless they are lying (isn't that their default setting?), then Goff is safe.

And I believe he is. They'll have a mini-man tussle over the Foreshore and Seabed tomorrow and Goff will walk out of caucus surrounded by supporters.

Goff will make some tough speech in the caucus about unity and disunity. He will talk about the late ‘80s and the ‘90s when Labour was factionalised and broken.

Fighting in public gets you nowhere and Goff will remind them of that - and the need for caucus discipline. So to suggest this is a leadership challenge, in my view, is wrong.

But it's still destabilising.

These are the last two weeks of the parliamentary year, so Labour doesn't want questions about Goff's leadership.

But it may successfully turn this on its head and remind people about Hone Harawira and the ETS deal with iwi. That's fertile ground.

So Goff will be endorsed tomorrow. He will lead the party into the 2011 election.

But this is the start of the destabilising campaign. Goff has one shot at the title. If he fails in 2011, he's gone. He may well resign immediately after the election should he fail. If he doesn't, he will be pushed.

So who is the next leader post 2011? My early money is on Shane Jones.

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Comments

08 Dec 2009 02:46p.m.

Duncan Garner wrote:

Warren, I have to disagree with you. I gave you informed opinion last night based on a number of calls I made to labour MPs. I came to the conclusion, based on conversations with Labour MPs, that Goff would NOT be rolled today. That is my job - to make it as clear and concise and accurate as possible for the NZ public. I note Goff has just emerged from the caucus as leader. There was no challenge as we correctly predicted last night.

08 Dec 2009 10:21a.m.

Warren wrote:

Duncan, when fact is embellished with opinion or opinion is delivered as fact, the credibility of your report comes into question. Credible news, as it implies is the reporting of facts as they are, not as you may or not wish them. Should you wish to express “your opinion” that is fine, however, I ask you please, not to intermix fact with your unsubstantiated opinion and portray it as News as per your delivery on TV3 6pm National News 7 Dec 09. It has not been factually confirmed whether Goff would remain or not.

07 Dec 2009 02:59p.m.

Craig Young wrote:

Duncan, you are probably correct about the absence of any factionalism in this context. Labour has moved on from the Mad Mike era of the early nineties and has learnt from the Australian Labor Party's dysfunctional and byzantine factional culture, which will probably end up losing it New South Wales at its next state election.

The Key administration will succumb to incumbency fatigue sooner or later. One wonders what will happen to its own latent factions if ACT's populist/professional divide ends up losing it Epsom and results in its political oblivion. After all, the Nats will have to run someone far better than Richard Worth there next time. If it's a palatable urban liberal, Mr Hide had best watch his back.

Pragmatic centrist Nats will clearly attribute any such loss to ACT's dollhouse scale version of its own woes during most of the last decade. As for the remnants of the Richardson era, one wonders at their reaction. Like Clark, Key may well be a pragmatic and effective leader.

However, sooner or later, policy mistakes are going to accumulate and rebound on National's unnaturally high opinion poll ratings. The question is when that will begin...