Opinion: Shearer vs. Cunliffe – how the numbers stack up

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Mon, 19 Nov 2012 10:48a.m.

Cunliffe has 11 MPs in Labour who support him. He needs 13 to force a leadership vote.

Cunliffe has 11 MPs in Labour who support him. He needs 13 to force a leadership vote.

Opinion by Political Reporter Patrick Gower

Camp Shearer is now claiming it is in the ascendancy in the battle for the Labour leadership.

Camp Cunliffe appears to be weakening.

At the weekend my colleague Brook Sabin and I approached every Labour MP to find out their position - and this is how the numbers stack up.

Now remember it is all about a February vote set down in Labour's constitution, where if 40 percent of the MPs - that's 14 - refuse to endorse David Shearer, then a leadership contest is triggered.

That contest would be under new rules and the entire party - grassroots members and unions - would get a say, rather than just MPs as it is now.

So the math is simple - if Cunliffe can get a total of 14 MPs (including himself of course) to refuse to endorse Shearer - he forces a leadership contest.

Shearer meanwhile needs to get 21 MPs (including himself) to see off a leadership contest.

Refusing to endorse Shearer: Camp Cunliffe potentials

  • David Cunliffe
  • Nanaia Mahuta
  • Charles Chauvel
  • Lianne Dalziel
  • Sua William Sio
  • Sue Moroney
  • Moana Mackey
  • Louisa Wall
  • Rajen Prasad
  • Parekura Horomira
  • Rino Tirikatene
  • Raymond Huo
  • Total: 12

Cunliffe needs 14 to get to the 40 percent mark to trigger a leadership contest. There are 12 on this list but remember while some are tight Cunliffe, others will go with the tide.

Refusing to say: Position ‘ambiguous’

  • Shane Jones
  • Ross Robertson
  • Total: 2

Shane Jones has not returned calls while Ross Robertson gave an ambiguous answer. Remember that Jones was suspended by Shearer over the Bill Liu affair. The votes of these two are crucial in the final result.

Camp Shearer: Standing by the leader

  • David Shearer
  • Grant Robertson
  • David Parker
  • Jacinda Ardern
  • Maryan Street
  • Clayton Cosgrove
  • Phil Twyford - Refuses to say - believed to be Shearer
  • Ruth Dyson - Refuses to say - believed to be Shearer
  • Trevor Mallard
  • Kris Faafoi
  • Iain Lees-Galloway
  • Damien O'Connor
  • Darien Fenton
  • Clare Curran
  • Phil Goff
  • Chris Hipkins
  • Annette King - Refuses to say - believed to be Shearer
  • David Clark
  • Andrew Little
  • Megan Woods
  • Total: 20

Shearer needs to get to 21 (over 60 percent) to see off the challenge. Most of these have openly declared and Camp Shearer is saying they actually have 23 - and that means it is over for Cunliffe.

So there you have it. That's how the numbers stack up as of now.

MPs who want to change camps on this list are welcome to contact the 3 News political office.

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Comments

24/11/2012 7:01:31 p.m.

Louise wrote:

As a staunch Labour voter, I am becoming alarmed that the John Key style of leadership is rubbing off on, what I believed was the party who represent equality, democracy etc.All I have witnessed is panic and a lack of confident leadership in the natural dynamics of politics.It is bigger than both David's and Patrick's trivialisation in reducing the issue to a race for the finish post is disappointing and rather facile.It could make the difference between the undecided's, yet again plumping for JK, because he smiled and waved at them, rather than a party who can't see past their own noses.You are so much better than that Labour, just show it.

23/11/2012 8:21:59 a.m.

timothy wrote:

did you not predict the republicans were going to win the election ? , also did you notice the us media is not all one sided like the political media is in nz pat ? did you ? . be nice to see it here . our press are so biased and bad they border on stealing any chance kiwis ever have at a free and fair vote .and they deny it but they know its the truth dont you .

22/11/2012 9:15:42 a.m.

Greg AKL wrote:

A vote for Cunliffe would have meant Helen would be back in Parliament, god help us then. Strong personality cult leaders like Helen do not surround themselfs with potentially strong leaders, but yes people. The media should be asking whats 'brand Labour', where are they going. Or do they need a complely new brand and get away from the worker past now history for Labour.

21/11/2012 12:29:12 p.m.

Don wrote:

Labour is split. But the numbers that count are ours at election time. Can Shearer take the lead in the polls by then..........one speech does not make a Leader .....except to his own.

20/11/2012 9:02:53 p.m.

Ruz wrote:

Can't help noticing that virtually all of the Maori caucus are in the Cunliffe camp. One way or the other Cunliffe is doomed. If he has the qualities required of a leader to foil National then they are well hidden. My prediction is that Shearer will be dumped before 2014 but the new leader won't be Cunliffe.

20/11/2012 11:52:12 a.m.

Atiawa wrote:

The only winner out of this absolute fiasco will be John Key and his government. There will however be many losers which will include NZ's democracy,a sane housing policy, jobs & training, a confused & reluctant electorate, fewer participants in political parties and a Labour party unable to remedy a loss of leadership that truly reflects representation of working peoples concerns and interest's. If Cunliffe & co were in China they would have being shot at dawn on Saturday morning. Our only hope is to allow more Chinese into the country.

19/11/2012 11:17:24 p.m.

AnnaL wrote:

Shearer is trying to avoid a membership selection process. He treats the will of the members with disdain. Shearer looses if he wins tomorrow. If Shearer is afraid of putting his Leadership to a members vote then the wider public will dis-respect him. The only over-reaching has been by Shearer. The will be Shearer's biggest blunder.

19/11/2012 3:24:25 p.m.

Antony Cotton wrote:

Labour if Cunliffe is not Leader I will being voting for National in 2014 for the first time at age 33 I Support Labour will not being Next time to many old Guard Mallard and Goff pass use there use by date. Only way to teach Labour Less will to vote National.

19/11/2012 11:53:14 a.m.

Challenger wrote:

If 12 refuse to endorse Shearer and he avoids a leadership trigger Labour still loses. It is a divided party. How do you expect a leader and his party who cannot unite the party of just 34 after a year to lead the country. In my opinion Shearer is just a puppet. Soon after the leadership election he should have sorted things out with Cunliffe. I agree Cunliffe is blinded by ambition. But offering a higher place in the front bench rather than demoting him beyond a very Junior member he has distanced himself from Cunliffe. Should he have offered him a olive branch even if Cunliffe was not happy he would have lost support. Instead Shearer is a puppet dancing to the ABC group. Has not stopped them from spreading rumours about Cunliffe and alienating him. This will increase the dissatisfaction and increase support for Cunliffe not because they like him but Shearer is blinded by the snakes in the caucus. Some one talked about team. What team. With so many snakes in the party scamming to stab others among others. No wonder the front bench is not firing. They all are looking over the shoulder to avoid being stabbed in the back.

19/11/2012 11:39:47 a.m.

Greg wrote:

I don't care who is the 'leader', I wouldn't vote Labour or for that matter the Greens anyway. As for the housing policy come and look at the cheap housing in Flaxmere, Hastings and I am sure there are others. Get it cheap, treat it cheap then sold to Landlords who have to let it cheap and the rest is history.

Patrick Gower

Political Editor

Patrick is the 3 News Political Editor based in Wellington. Here he offers his commentary on New Zealand politics from his front-row seat in the Press Gallery. He has been a journalist for 15 years, covering stories in Afghanistan and on the US presidential election campaign trail, and was previously a political and investigative reporter for the New Zealand Herald.

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