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Politics 2011: The good, the bad, the awful

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Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:18a.m.

John Key, David Shearer, Russel Norman and Gerry Brownlee

John Key, David Shearer, Russel Norman and Gerry Brownlee

Opinion by Political Editor Duncan Garner

I'm not handing out a politician of the year award in 2011, but I'm singling out two outstanding performers.

One from the Government, one from opposition.

Firstly the opposition MP of the year; I give it to Dr Russel Norman.

Norman took the Greens to a record election result. Sure he was helped by a weak Labour Party, but he and his co-leader, caucus and party still had to make it happen. And they did. The Greens are now firmly entrenched as the third largest party in Parliament.

The test of Norman's abilities will be to keep the Greens this big, as Labour bounces back - which is likely - though not a given.

But Norman has had a superb year - and he's grown enormously since his squeaky and slightly embarrassing episode outside Parliament when he demanded, "give me my flag back" - (in a high pitched Aussie twang).

So often this year when the economic issue of the day required a clear, concise opposition voice, Norman delivered it, not Labour.

His tone was right, his positioning was good.

The Greens suddenly became a credible voice on economic issues. Their issues, so often seen as left wing and loopy, were suddenly mainstream; an earthquake tax, investing in state owned assets, sustainable jobs, clean rivers, kids out of poverty. Who thinks any of these ideas are dumb?

His handling of the Greens vandalism of National billboards was classy. He fronted up, owned it and acted. It was crisis management 101. It lasted 24 hours and he killed the issue and any fallout.

All year I found him approachable, humble and humorous.

So Norman gets a 9.5 out of 10 from me.

He would have got a 10, but he loses half a point for taking the piss out of my mate and colleague Paddy Gower for his singing of the US national anthem in front of the Green's caucus. Although I can't blame Norman.

Gower was awful but brave - hence the headline, the Good, the Bad and the Awful. (Sorry Paddy, great work this year though mate.)

My Government Minister of the year goes to Gerry Brownlee.

He is the only National MP who entered Parliament in 1996 to still be here. Yes, so much of the gold that Brownlee touches turns to bronze, and he hasn't been perfect. No way. 

But this accolade is for Christchurch alone. It is an enormous problem. In my view it's a 20 year rebuild and it will cost $40 billion. If you think that's far fetched go and read what Treasury is costing the rebuild at as of three months ago. $30b and rising.

It had the potential to sink the Government. It's a red town - that is now painted blue.

John Key and Gerry Brownlee got the tone right. Sure there are some disgruntled people. That happens. But the Government's rescue packages were bang on. The initial business rescue grants were extended and that was the right decision.

The Government's decision to buy thousands of written-off houses was the biggest insurance package any Government anywhere in the world had offered its citizens.

It is a massive extension to the welfare state. The Government acted because it had to. The insurance companies have been slow to open their wallets. Their behaviour over the next three years is being closely watched by the Government.

I called it a silver plated scheme when it was released and I stand by that.

That National won Christchurch Central and Waimakariri is testament to Brownlee's work in his home town. I accept some households are not happy, but given the scale of the disaster Brownlee and John Key have largely got the Government's response bang on. And all this happened as AMI melted down and South Canterbury collapsed.

The real test now comes in the next three years. Can the CBD ever be rebuilt in that location again? How quick can the residential relocations and rebuild happen?

So take a bow from me Russel and Gerry. Well done.

And so what to make of the others?

David Shearer is a nice, common and decent joker that has had very little presence or voice in Parliament over the last little while.

He's now Labour's great white hope. I genuinely believe he got there because so many Labour MPs just simply didn't like David Cunliffe. Shearer is raw and green and those are his words. It will be a fascinating watch. If he hasn't turned around Labour's fortunes around within 18 months - 2 years I can't see him lasting.

Labour MPs are desperate to return to Government - Shearer may have only one shot at this.

At least he'll get a good honeymoon and plenty of women's mags will now write about him and his 'back-story.'

It's a honeymoon poor old Phil Goff never got. Key should offer Goff a job somewhere in the world to say thanks for his service. But that would mean a by-election and National will be keen to avoid any electoral scrap next year as it sells assets.

Key's 47.3 percent is just short of what the party wanted. But Winston Peters wanted a scandal and Key handed him one. The shine came off Key in the campaign for the first time. He looked vulnerable.

But he's still remarkably popular and 47.3 percent after three tough years is a remarkable return and he will take some beating. He needs coalition partners and winning in 2014 will be so hard but not impossible.

The worst performers? Well it's hard to single them out, there are so many quiet MPs.

Aaron Gilmore from National is no great loss and I'm not sure what Melissa Lee does around here.

In Labour, it's time Ross Robertson hung up his walking stick. That he is still there representing Labour in South Auckland shows the party has some way to go to credibly claim it's freshening up.

So to the months ahead.

Shearer must bring the factions together and Shane Jones, David Cunliffe, Nanaia Mahuta and Jacinda Ardern have to be on the front bench or close to it.

Key must continue to sooth voter's concerns about asset sales. And Peter Dunne should poll his electorate to ask if he should support them? He won't because he's committed to them under the confidence and supply agreement. But if he did, he might find they are not in favour. This could be the end of Dunne.

Winston is back and will cause a fuss in Parliament but how many of his lot will last the distance?

Not all of them is my pick. So that's 2011.

And I have one last thought; with Rodney Hide now out of a job but having moved his family to Wellington - why doesn't he run for the Wellington Mayoralty? He's a fun, smart, intelligent, hard working and energetic bloke.

He knows the inner workings of the Beehive and Local Government. Wellington has for years supported a pro-business Mayor - but has ended up with someone the city is a little unsure of.

Hide would romp home. Merry Xmas and here's to 2012.

Take care to all the readers of our website and to the viewers of 3 News.

Cheers, Duncan

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Comments

28 Dec 2011 01:20a.m.

timothy wrote:

privatise 49% of our public hospitals national make our day i dear ya .in 2002 the nasty party was down two 20% and 25 seats so i think labour is better placed than they were . they could not win dog catcher the nationals if it were not for the medias help .

24 Dec 2011 04:42p.m.

WJB wrote:

With the continuing earthquakes in Christchurch, I would like to make one observation. I read in the paper about St John's call outs to help people and for a second I read it as St John and I thought good god, smiling John has been made a saint. But no not yet! Interesting how he has not returned to Christchurch at this time, but the election is over, and he will be in his million dollar paradise weeping about the poor in n.z. At least we don't have to face pictures of this man in our paper with his fellow MPs lined up looking grim behind him. What a photo opportunity he has missed. And I didn't even get a Xmas card.

23 Dec 2011 12:32p.m.

Gypsy wrote:

I don't now how you can rate Russell Norman so high. You would have to be a clown not to under stand that he is a right wing plant.No wonder all the left wing radicals have left the greens.(Watch this space)

23 Dec 2011 10:37a.m.

Robyn Walter wrote:

Hmm. Such bias evident here... remember Winston Churchill!~ "if you are not a soialist when you are 20, you have no heart. If you are not a conservative when you are 30, you have no brain'...

22 Dec 2011 07:49a.m.

winston smith wrote:

So by posting a comment one is trying to portray themselves as a serious commentator? It's a blog AJ, take a bex and have a lay down, you will be ok. I don't take money or accept accolades for my views unlike your friend Duncan, that's the difference. I know it must have taken you quite soome time to think of the incredibly witty tact to turn the words I used against me but hey fella, get your own won't you. While your at it why not try to form an opinion on something of merit apart from attacking nobodies like me.

21 Dec 2011 11:39a.m.

AJ wrote:

In a world of swaggering light weight internet experts Winston Smith has to take the cake. He endeavours to portray himself as an astute commentator but it seems he is just another hack. Winston Smith can certainly do better than this lazy approach to posting. It takes more than a blustering, arrogant approach to mark yourself as a serious commentator.

21 Dec 2011 07:29a.m.

winston smith wrote:

In a world of swaggering light weight journalists Duncan Garner has to take the cake. He endeavours to portray himself as an astute political insider but it seems he is just another fringe dwelling hack who the poli's twist and turn to their advantage. NZ can certainly do better than this lazy approach to political dialogue. It takes more than a blustering, arrogant approach to mark yourself as a serious journalist.

18 Dec 2011 10:50p.m.

Williams wrote:

Owned !

18 Dec 2011 05:25p.m.

smith wrote:

they will attack david s espechly as the star times has labour up 10% since he took over duncan its 19.12.2011 . so you watch the media go after david now . 37% labour in todays poll they said since david took over from goff . they will be shittin themselves the torys if that keeps up through 2014 .smiley smarmy smug boy better watch out .

18 Dec 2011 05:25p.m.

smith wrote:

they will attack david s espechly as the star times has labour up 10% since he took over duncan its 19.12.2011 . so you watch the media go after david now . 37% labour in todays poll they said since david took over from goff . they will be shittin themselves the torys if that keeps up through 2014 .smiley smarmy smug boy better watch out .