Tue, 09 Feb 2010 2:33p.m.
By Duncan Garner
Watch John Key's full speech
If you're planning on doing up the house or buying a new washing machine - do it now.
An increase to GST is coming. It will most likely go from 12.5 percent to 15 percent in the May budget.
John Key is right now outlining in Parliament the tax changes his Government will make this year.
The shake-up is significant. It's the biggest overhaul in years.
And he's also ruled out other potential changes and new taxes - that would have been political suicide for him and his team.
So expect these changes in the May budget.
It's clear his Government will;
- Increase GST to 15% - that will raise almost $2.0b in revenue.
- Key says he will compensate those on low and fixed incomes by increasing benefits, National Superannuation and Working for Families payments. That cuts off Labour's ability to attack the increase to GST.
- Key will close the loopholes allowing property investors to claim lucrative tax refunds on their investment properties. Last year investors claimed $150m of tax refunds on $200b dollars worth of property. This change is long overdue. The rip-offs must end.
- Key will take high income people out of the Working for Families Scheme, and give them a tax cut as compensation. For many families - they will no longer be deemed beneficiaries on $100k with four kids.
- Key will give those on high incomes, over $70k a tax cut. Currently they pay 38c in the dollar - it will come down to at least 33c - perhaps even lower - is what I'm hearing.
- Tax cuts across the board will come down.
- There will be NO land tax.
- There will be NO capital gains tax on investment properties.
- Key will mine some conservation land - as he looks for minerals to help make the country wealthy.
- Key will clamp down on the sickness benefit so only the genuinely sick can get it - rather than the builder with the sore knee - who continues to build decks and move rubbish bins while claiming welfare.
- Abatement rates will also change for those on welfare - so beneficiaries can go back to work and earn more before they start losing their benefit. This is seen as crucial to getting people back into work and off welfare.
So Key, in my opinion, has struck a pretty reasonable balance - he could have gone further - but he may have been punished.
He is trying to take the heat out of the consumption and property sectors - it's about realigning the tax system.
The changes hinted here are big enough.
Labour says National promised "Big Tuesday and has delivered tip-toe Tuesday". That's a nice slogan. But it might be all Labour has today. Phil Goff says National will never be able to compensate those on low and fixed incomes for the increase in GST.
To watch Labour leader Phil Goff's full reply click here
He says the test for National will come in the Budget. Goff, predictably, reckons the speech doesn't offer any solutions on economic growth - and too much emphasis has been put on the tax changes.
So, the May 20 budget will flesh out all the details.
But GST will rise. Taxes will come down.
Key's speech says the GST increase is only "under consideration" - but in my experience, governments don't fly flags like this without implementing them.
The economic modelling has been done by Treasury.
GST is on its way up. Buy your fridge now! Get your new car now. The sales are coming. Don't wait for May 21.