By Patrick Gower
Peter Dunne's spin brigade has tried on a full-frontal filthy denial of his dirty deal in Ohariu with John Key/National.
Dunne's found time to cast his eye over my last blog and dispatched one of his henchmen to say:
"What's all this ‘dirty’ stuff???”
It’s always good to know someone is reading. And no, they didn't complain about me saying “if there was no Dunne-deal" he'd "go more feral than one of the possums he doesn't want to use 1080 on”.
So that was a pleasant surprise.
Dunne's crew did say "what's all this dirty stuff???" like they are some kind of pack of angels.
Dunne’s spin-doctor says:
"It's all up front and out there for people to vote for whichever MP they want, at least on our side… ( Labour and the Greens are the ones doing denials…Now that's dirty!!).”
But what the spin-meister really wanted to debate was my assertion there is no "strategic advantage" to National doing the Dunne-deal and knee-capping the National candidate just to avoid the threat of Labour’s Charles Chauvel getting the seat in a three-way race.
Here’s some more from Dunne's henchman:
"Even if United Future doesn't bring in a second or third MP in [off the party vote] and Peter holds his seat, it will actually be 'plus one' for a centre-right Government.. so there is a numbers gain… Therefore counter to your line, there is a strategic advantage., Katrina holding the seat would mean they are effectively one vote down… they won't get an extra MP as she is already in on the list… and Peter would be gone."
I agree. A back-of-the envelope analysis shows if United Future polls below .4%, and Dunne wins the seat, there will be an overhang - and a "plus one" bonus.
But if United Future polled between .4 and 1.2%, that would be proportional - there is no bonus.
So there is a chance of a strategic advantage in this dirty deal, especially if, as the polls show, United Future get 0% or close to it.
But there may also be no advantage at all, particularly if Dunne boosts his profile in the campaign debates.
So I stand by my argument that there could be no strategic advantage to this deal and it’s just to keep Charles Chauvel out and there may also be a back-room deal with John Key.
So all up, another filthy deal by Dunne. As my Aunty Anne used to say: "you can't put icing sugar on a cow pat and call it a meringue".
But full credit to Dunne, at least they have replied to my blog and tried to deny the cruddy deal.
Neither National, Labour nor the Greens have bothered to deny their vile, yecchy deals.
Don Brash did for ACT but a news article today shows that he's already kneecapped their man in New Plymouth.
It’s called being "in denial" and no doubt makes it easier to sleep when you've done a dirty deed.