By Duncan Garner
The last 3 News Reid Research Poll before the election shows National is still in a commanding position but there is a catch, if you look closer.
John Key is on track to govern alone on these numbers.
National goes up a bit to 50.8 percent, that gives them 65 seats.
Labour drops back to 26.0; its lowest result since the mid-1990s.
The Green Party record their best ever result, 13.4 percent, or 17 seats
NZ First 3.1 percent, still below that crucial threshold.
And the Conservative Party showing up but need a seat which is unlikely.
The Maori Party is on 1.5, Mana 1.1 and ACT 1.0, who need to win Epsom to survive or it is oblivion.
The United Party have not registered for the seventh consecutive poll.
National will be happy if it looks like that on Saturday night.
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In the preferred Prime Minister, John Key is on 49, Phil Goff 12, Winston Peters four and Russell Norman showing up at two percent.
So Mr Key's real concern will be holding that vote. If he drops and Labour makes a late rally, putting together a government becomes so much harder for Key.
And we just want to paint you another scenario around the undecided voters.
The undecided voters in our poll have risen from nine to 12 percent, which is unusual; some of them may not actually vote.
But we pushed them further and asked them about their leanings and how they may vote.
And once you crunch those numbers, things change a bit.
National's vote drops to 47.3, Labour's drops to 25.8 and NZ First’s picks up to 4.1 percent.
The rest is spread amongst the minors without any major effect.
So that's a warning to Mr Key that there are voters out there who have not made up their minds and anything can happen.
But the polls have been solid for Mr Key; his vote appears to be holding up.
It would be a major surprise to see Mr Key unseated as Prime Minister on Saturday night.
3 News