By Patrick Gower
So who will take Simon Power's role as "next National leader"?
The received wisdom was that Simon Power was on a "marathon run" to be Prime Minister.
Well today he pulled out - and quite a few kilometres along in the race.
And that leaves a bit of a power struggle among the big egos in the National Party.
There's always been the theory that Key was going to get the hell out of here too - as early as next term or soon after 2014.
Like Power, Key probably doesn't want to be an old, broken-down and bitter man when there's quite a lot else there he's capable of.
But Power always loomed as a possible successor. He had the goods to be PM - or a deputy-come-Finance Minister.
Now the pecking order is shaken up. There's future leader and deputy leader roles up for grabs and the hopefuls will be jockeying even harder for position.
So who's left pounding the street?
Bill English: If you thought Power was on a marathon run, this guy is on the ultra-marathon. He'll jog past Power now, and probably won't look back. He could do New Zealand's version of John Howard and become PM in 2020 such is his determination. But maybe the public are tired of watching him do loops.
Gerry Brownlee: Gezza's a stayer too. He had an absolute 'mare with the mining but is back on track and comes across well with the punters. Has Deputy PM stamped on, but it all depends how this shakes down.
Steven Joyce: New to the race. That helps. Key's mate. That helps even more. Background: his background’s a bit like Key - that helps too. Everyone says this guy is a future Finance Minister. Why not Prime Minister? He's got everything else he's wanted so far in politics.
Judith Collins: Crusher is the highest-ranking woman. She takes no prisoners. That will extend to her fellow front-bench colleagues in a leadership race where she would rate herself as at least a deputy leader.
Tony Ryall: Smooth operator. Stayer. No matter how much he harps on about loving Health and it's the best portfolio ever - he would love the Finance role in some future shake-up. Best bet is with his brat-pack mate Bill English but he could slip into it some other way.
So good on you Power - you've created some intrigue.
Then there's Power's prized justice portfolio - and the struggle for direction there.
Of course Crusher may be keen on grabbing the Justice role. We all know Power hated "three strikes" and brought it in under duress because it rated highly in National's polling.
Power was a National Party "liberal" in the tradition of Ralph Hanan, the 1960s Justice Minister who crossed the floor to vote against the death penalty for murder.
Crusher is on the other side of that debate - she ended up fronting "three strikes".
So that'll be a change. Unless of course justice goes to Chris Finlayson - a legalistic liberal more akin to Power.
That liberal/conservative divide continues into the caucus and wider National Party.
Power was a consensus MMP man - not everyone liked that.
It’s a shock, and a lot of people are wondering why.
But let’s get it straight here: Simon Power didn't want to "do a Goff".
Goff's still battling away despite having had some great years as a minister.
Like Goff, Power came in young. Sure he may have been leader one day - but the timing may have been wrong.
Why wait all your life for something that may never happen.
Power achieved a fair bit. But I wonder if he could ever really fix up the justice system the way he would like to. Head and brick wall stuff. Costs money, which National won't do, and is liberal, which the National backbench doesn't like.
It’s no secret I respect Power. He was the first politician I ever got to know when he was opposition Corrections spokesman and I was a police reporter looking for stories to get me though the summer season. I wrote this column after National took power, exposing his liberal instincts.
He's an honest fulla - and I rate that.
So Power's gone out on top: he's done what I call a "political Susan Devoy".
The corporate world awaits this machine. Any bets on Simon Power, Fonterra CEO?