An expert speaking at the Canterbury Earthquakes Royal Commission has said without the September 4 quake, as many as 500 people would have died on February 22 from unreinforced masonry buildings.
The Commission started its two-week hearing into unreinforced masonry buildings today - buildings which caused 42 deaths in the February 22 earthquake.
Auckland University Associate Professor Jason Ingham, who co-authored ‘The Performance of Unreinforced Masonry Buildings in the 2010/2011 Canterbury Earthquake Swarm’, spoke to the Commission this afternoon.
He said without the September quake, a number of unreinforced buildings would still have been standing and occupied when the February 22 earthquake hit, leading to more deaths.
“It is plausible that would have been in the vicinity of 300 extra deaths in February if we hadn't had a prior earthquake,” he said.
Around 33 unreinforced buildings were demolished after the September quake, and other unsafe buildings were fenced off and left unoccupied.
If Manchester Courts – a six-storey building which was demolished after the September quake – had still been standing in February, Mr Ingham says, it would have collapsed and killed an estimated 60 occupants and bystanders.
Another 124 people could potentially have been killed in building collapses, he says, and 110 would have been crushed by falling masonry.
Mr Ingham’s report recommends all unreinforced masonry buildings be strengthened to a minimum of two thirds of the building code, double the one third currently required.
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