The Greens: John Key's biggest electoral asset?

Tue, 04 Dec 2012 12:42p.m.

Greens co-leader Russel Norman and Labour leader David Shearer (Getty)

Political Editor

John Key has got an early Christmas present - a giant Green stick to whack David Shearer around the head with.

And Key is clearly intent on using his Green stick to bash Labour out of the centre ground right up until polling day in 2014.

Our 3 News/Reid research poll shows there could be a Labour/Greens Government.

The Greens want to have plenty of control - Russel Norman even wants to be Finance Minister.

Key knows that many in the New Zealand public fear the Greens. And the fact is there is probably no such-thing as a "Labour-led Government" any more - except in Shearer's dreams.

It will be a "Labour-Greens Government" up against a "National-led Government".

And that means Key can raise fears about just what the Green side of that equation wants to do.

The Greens want to print more money - Labour thinks that's mad.

The Greens want to stop all fracking (even though the Parliamentary Commissioner couldn't find a problem) - Labour likes the jobs it provides and wants it to go ahead.

The Greens want to stop deep-sea drilling - once again, Labour likes the jobs it provides, and wants it to go ahead.

Norman wants to be Finance Minister - Labour is intent on having one of its own people in there.

The list goes on and on.

We have already seen Key using the Green stick this week - hitting Labour with the attack line that the Greens want to stop everything and don't like jobs.

Norman's had a great year but his brain explosion about printing money to get us out of a financial hole looks like it will be a gift that keeps on giving for Key as well.

With two years to go - there will be plenty of others,

We now also know that a Labour/Greens Government will have a "proportional Cabinet".

Norman has called for that and Shearer agrees it’s the right thing to do.

It means the Greens would get a share of the Cabinet proportional to the seats they have in Government - on polling, that's around about a 1/3.

So that would mean up to seven Green MPs in any Cabinet - the public are entitled to know who this may be and how it will work (or not work).

Expect some severely bruised Labour egos - for instance, Trevor Mallard or Phil Goff may not make Cabinet. That will go down well if Kennedy Graham makes it.

Shearer seems to want things both ways - he wants an old-school Labour-led Government. But he is happy to try and grub a victory against Key - and be a "minority Prime Minister" who wins thanks to the Greens and MMP mathematics.

This will help Key who can campaign on old-school stability - the most popular leader of the most popular party. He knows that many New Zealanders will struggle with the idea of a minority Prime Minister - the first time around at least.

And don't say the election is two years away and this is for another day.

It is never too early to educate and inform the public about what future Government's may look like.

Key has obviously decided it’s not too early to attack.

And Norman has decided it’s not too early to say he wants to be Finance Minister and have up to seven Cabinet spots.

Labour just doesn't want to engage because its scared of the impact getting too cosy with the Greens will have.

Labour doesn't want to the public to have a true picture of what a Labour-Greens Government will look like.

The centre ground is still where elections are won and lost. And it is clear Key will use his Green stick to bash Labour and scare centre voters back over to his side.

At the last election, the Greens systematically misled the voting public that they could work with National - they even seemed to fool Key and Steven Joyce for a while.

The truth is that it was just a Green ruse to try and nab a few extra votes.

The gloves are now well and truly off and its payback time for Key - he can use and abuse the Greens for his own benefit.

It is obvious that Labour are scared of the negative impact the Greens will have on them when it comes to the centre voter.

If it wasn't so scared, then Shearer would have at least considered the idea of Norman as Finance Minister.

Aside from the day he decided printing money was a good idea, Norman is a superb economic communicator - he often puts Labour to shame.

Surely he could be an asset to a Left-wing Government as Finance Minister?

The same can be said of Metiria Turei - she would be an electoral asset given Labour is largely devoid of strong female politicians.

And Kevin Hague - the former DHB boss would be a good look as the next Health Minister.

But Shearer's answer is: no. Norman and the Greens are clearly a threat to Labour on many levels.

And that's why the Greens are an asset to Key.

3 News

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Comments

26/01/2013 9:15:41 a.m.

madonna wrote:

reading your comments you all sound like brainwashed moonies oh its in the media it must be true . they are preofessional lairs you idiots your idiots my fellow kiwis full of pornography and the love of money no wonder you dont know split beans from butter milk lazey un thinking race we have become

20/12/2012 2:03:04 p.m.

peter wrote:

Norman Russell and the Green party are correct to question the economic benefits being postulated by the government and glibly swallowed by political commentators (who have no inclination to do any background research into the facts). Over the last 6 months as coal mines close and international oil companies demonstrate luke-warm interest in exploration off NZ's coast it is clear that the energy sector will not bring the big economic boost that ministers continue to talk up. Certainly not any time soon. As for printing money - this is what nearly all major western economies are doing at the moment. If it's good enough for the US, UK and Europe why is the NZ media getting so hysterical about it. Me thinks they protesteth too much and all on behalf of the investor class in NZ. The Greens are correct in questioning the economic orthodoxy and if we're lucky they will gain seats on the treasury bench and get the NZ economy working for more NZer's - not just share holders.

18/12/2012 7:21:31 a.m.

katubaldy wrote:

This opinion piece and it's headline are amateur night and short on any factual evidence. The Green Party brings up legitimate concerns about the environment and looks out for the interest of NZers. Jobs from the fossil fuel industries are not the only jobs this country can create, they're just on the govt's agenda. As for the problem-fraught fracking process, it has been plagued by setbacks and local community protests from the beginning.Has flammable tap water and unexpected seismic activity become acceptable or have these problems just been swept 'under the carpet'? Hiding behind the findings of a Royal Commission doesn't make those problems disappear? The Obama administration has been intermittently printing money in the last 4 years to help keep the US economy alive and they are now starting to see the benefits of those policies and the turning of their huge economy. No mention of that success any where in your opinion piece Mr Gower? You deride the Greens and try to undermine their contributions to help solve the country's woes, when they are on the rise in NZ and around the world? Also the continued support of the Maori Party for National is nothing guaranteed after the antagonism by this govt in the asset 'garage sale' debacle. Tariana Turia is leaving and that makes ties even more tenuous. Another weak link is that National had to rely on the shonkey dealings of John Banks and his anonymous white envelope donations, (which he openly solicited for) to help them get back into power. You should proof read your work before it goes out and check that it doesn't sound like a National party statement they'd be proud of. At times your article sounds like a sports based opinion piece. That surely cannot be taken as a credible form of political journalism nowadays can it? It's a sad indictment on kiwi society if that's the case.

15/12/2012 1:51:42 p.m.

Simon Johnson wrote:

What a load of drivel! This is just badly-informed anti-Green prejudice pretending to be journalism. I thought that was David Farrar's job.

11/12/2012 3:18:50 p.m.

Jim Lee wrote:

Good opinion piece. Personally I don't feel any political party in the arena currently represents New Zealanders best interests, as they are all ruled by ideology (either left or right wing), rather than common sense. Its time our politicians got their act together, but I'd say thats about as likely as a 2014 surplus or printing money working to solve our currency crisis.

9/12/2012 10:39:46 p.m.

Oraty wrote:

"brain explosion about printing money" Sounds like you know for certain that quantitative easing or "printing money" would have a negative impact on our economy. But you're not an economist and cite nothing. Provide evidence or phrase it as your view. (Yes I know this is an opinion piece - that's not enough)

9/12/2012 10:37:40 p.m.

Jackp wrote:

I think most are tired of Key and they see through his fake smile and his agenda which is to sell out New Zealand to foreigners. Key will be on the back foot so Christmas will be a relief for him and hope and pray the public will forget his incredible blunders instead of receiving a gift from Shearer. Key will loose the next election.

9/12/2012 9:08:34 p.m.

mike wrote:

you forget pat nationals margin for error here is wafer thin with recored unemployment and mr key himself indicating the economy is getting worse into the next couple of years as he said the next he election will be close , how is national going to get much above 44% running for a forth term . i realise the mainstream media are on nationals side as a report a few weeks ago said . but to get theem above 46 on election night going into a 3erd term mate your dreaming sorrry . the truth is evreyone its the nats who are in trouble when it comes to 2014 not the oposition partys . why do you have to misslead the public so .

8/12/2012 8:48:36 a.m.

TWE wrote:

I agree, Brian. Labour/Greens would be a disaster as would another term of National in full control. The best I can hope for is a National-led government hobbled by a good number of Conservative Party and NZ First MP's (all that was good about ACT is long gone). But that isn't going to happen.

7/12/2012 1:32:48 p.m.

JeanetteE wrote:

The Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment found plenty of problems with Fracking, urging more caution and stronger regulation.

Patrick Gower

Political Editor

Patrick is the 3 News Political Editor based in Wellington. Here he offers his commentary on New Zealand politics from his front-row seat in the Press Gallery. He has been a journalist for 15 years, covering stories in Afghanistan and on the US presidential election campaign trail, and was previously a political and investigative reporter for the New Zealand Herald.

Follow @patrickgowernz