By Dan Satherley
Just over seven months out from the election and things are not looking good for Phil Goff and Labour.
The latest 3 News-Reid Research poll has National sitting pretty on 57.5 percent, more than double Labour's share of the vote, at 27.1 percent.
Prime Minister John Key towers over Mr Goff in the preferred leader stakes, polling 52.4 percent to his rival's 6.8 percent.
Six months is a long time in politics, but is there enough time for Labour to claw their way back?
Looking at polling half-a-year out from the previous few elections, probably not – though the election is likely to be a bit closer than current polling suggests. Unfortunately for Mr Goff, that's about the only good news history has to deliver.
Let's start by looking at the 2008 election. National scored just shy of 45 percent of the vote that year, 11 points ahead of Labour's 34 percent.
In April 2008 – six months beforehand – Labour averaged a poll rating of 35.9 percent in polls conducted by the Digipoll, TNS, Colmar Brunton, Nielsen and three by Roy Morgan (which we have counted once, using an average of the three). This is 2 percent higher than their election day result.
Using the same polls and methodology, National polled an average 51 percent – 14.9 percent ahead of Labour, and a massive 6 percent higher than what they achieved in November.
Still, the bad news for Labour is that the polls in April 2008 only boosted National's lead over Labour – compared to the election – by 3.9 percent. The problem for Mr Goff and co is that the gap in our latest poll is over 30 percent, so they will need a swing much larger than 3.9 percent if they're to take power.
Even with the Greens (at approx 7.7 percent) and New Zealand First (assuming they get 5 percent) on side, a 4 percent swing only brings them to 42.7 percent of the vote, far short of what's required. The ad-hoc coalition Labour formed after the nail-biting 2005 election – with the Progressives, United Future and New Zealand First – collected 50.65 percent of the vote, barely forming a mandate.
Polling six months out from that cliffhanger 2005 election showed Labour with a narrow 3.1 percent lead over National. Averaging the results from six polls (including two by Digipoll) from April and May 2005, Labour on 40.6 percent led National, on 37.5 percent.
In November, Labour narrowly defeated the Don Brash led opposition by 2 percent, securing 41.1 percent of the vote to National's 39.1.
The polls – even six months out – were pretty close to the final result showing no obvious bias towards National and, suggesting the controversial Exclusive Brethren campaign in the following months didn't do much to put voters off Dr Brash's party.
So is Labour doomed to another spell in opposition? It seems very likely, unless something very dramatic occurs – like the rise of a new potential coalition partner, for example.
Such a thing happened in the months leading up to the 2002 election, not that Labour needed it. Peter Dunne's United New Zealand won a single seat in Parliament at the 1999 election, and its future coalition partner – Future New Zealand – had none. They combined forces in 2000, and were going nowhere until only weeks before the 2002 election, when a strong TV appearance from Mr Dunne shot the party to 6.7 percent of the vote, winning eight seats in Parliament.
Could something happen this year? If the rumoured left-wing collaboration between ex-Green Sue Bradford and maverick Maori Party rebel Hone Harawira comes to fruition, possibly – though they'd be coming from nowhere, and would be more likely to cannibalise votes from Labour and the Greens than National, their ideological opposites.
TV3's polling in the run up to the 2005 and 2008 elections was recognised as the most accurate in a study last year, so Mr Goff looks almost certain to be leading the Labour Party to a heavy defeat in November.
3 News