By Greg Robertson
Be a skeptic or not, Ken Ring’s Valentine’s Day tweet is a little eerie.
The mathematician is a long-range weather forecaster who bases his predictions around the moon, sun and other scientific activity. Beyond 'Moon Forecasting', it’s his earthquake calls that have people a-buzz.
On February 14, 2011 Mr Ring made this tweet: “Potential earthquake time for the planet between 15th-25th, especially 18th for Christchurch, +/- about 3 days.” Short... and sharp.
The 6.3 magnitude quake struck four days from his 18th assessment, just one day outside his margin of error. For some, the coincidence and that forecast - despite not being absolutely precise - are just too accurate to discount. Very close, it seems, is enough for a little eyebrow raising. However, on the other side of the fence (and there's plenty of opinion to be found on the internet) his delusional ramblings have no basis beyond the minds of the mad.
Last September though, Ken Ring had said that another big one was on its way, again in a tweet: "The Christchurch earthquake was predictable. And there's another coming in 6 months."
That was after he had spotted the first September 4 quake, and told - “You’ll be reading about floods and winds and earthquakes and snow over the next week, particularly in the South Island”.
Then on Marcus Lush's Radio Live programme he brought it up again. “There's another coming in 6 months.” He went into great detail.
And even well respected commentators like Marcus Lush gave him some dues, saying during the interview: “Well done, you got that.”
But it’s his final warning - the Valentine's Day Tweet - that perhaps allows some thought to an eerie ability to ‘read’ and forecast weather patterns... and even natural disasters such as earthquakes?
During the interview with Lush he said the next big quake would come March 20 in Christchurch, along the east-west fault-line in Marlborough and Canterbury.
It seems - with the Valentine’s Day tweet - that he had sat down and done his sums again, bringing in the March 20 date first announced. Or, god forbid, is there another one to come? A believer or not, the following information he released on his website February 14 makes for interesting reading and you can make your own mind up if the V-Day message came with love or lunacy...
The following information is from www.predictweather.co.nz
Solar activity is picking up in pace right now, with coronal holes appearing close to where they appeared before the 4 September earthquake in Christchurch. The sunspot number today was 63. It was 54 on the 4 September. One sunspot in particular, called AR1158 is growing rapidly and poses a threat to Earth. Solar activity has been stepping up since 10 January but most activity has missed Earth because most blasts occurred on the far side of the sun. Statistically speaking, a plasma bullet in our direction may be overdue, according to spaceweather.com.
Compare this to the coronal hole around the end of December, when Christchurch received a large jolt...
... and to the coronal hole the day before 4 September...
It means this area of the sun that corresponds to NZ is again seeing some activation. The window of 15-25 February should be potent for all types of tidal action, not only King tides but cyclone development and ground movement. The 18th may be especially prone. The possible earthquake risk areas are N/S faults until after 16 February, then E/W faults until 23rd. The moon will be full on the 18th and in perigee on the 19th. This perigee will be the fifth closest for the year. The 15th will be nodal for the moon. On the 20th the moon crosses the equator heading south. Strong winds and swells may arrive around 22nd to NZ shorelines.
These are opinions and not predictions, based on observation of repeating lunar patterns. Full moon+perigee in summer brings a lot of ground heat which aids the development of cyclonic systems, whether gales, tropical lows, tropical depressions or fully named cyclones. The gales bring the destructive winds that dry out the ground in some places to create dust nuisances in Australia, or if combined with rain brings localised flooding. Full moon+perigee has also been labelled "earthquake weather", as it can create increased high pressure on the surface of the land, and this has been suggested to act as a possible trigger separating tectonic plates.
For an earthquake to occur many factors have to come together, but sun activity, full moon and perigee are arguably the most potent, and they are all starting to chime now. Over the next 10 days a 7+ earthquake somewhere is very likely. This could also be a time for auroras in the northern hemisphere and in the southern tip of NZ. It may also be a time for whale strandings because of increases in underwater earthquakes. The 7+ is sure to be somewhere in the "Ring of Fire", where 80% of all major earthquakes seem to occur, and NZ is at the lower left of this Ring. The range of risk may be within 500kms of the Alpine Fault.
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The original Marcus Lush Ken Ring interview