New Hollywood thriller Contagion has drawn attention to killer plagues, with Massey University scientists saying the outbreak scenario of the film isn’t as far-fetched as we might think.
The film has been praised by scientists across the globe for its accuracy, with American contagious disease expert Paul Offit saying, "Typically when movies take on science, they tend to sacrifice the science in favor of drama. That wasn't true here."
Contagion focuses on the spread of a deadly and highly contagious virus, its effect on society, and the search for a vaccine.
Massey University Professor of Food Safety and Veterinary Public Health Nigel French is a specialist in the spread of infectious diseases. He says an epidemic like that featured in the film has happened, and could happen again.
The Spanish flu epidemic of 1918 was a global pandemic which killed between 50 and 100 million people. A large-scale pandemic could strike again, Professor French says, but the world is better prepared scientifically to deal with the virus.
The Spanish flu is believed to have spread via migrating birds, which resonated with Contagion, where the virus is passed from animals to humans.
Massey Professor and mathematical biologist Mick Roberts uses mathematical models to predict the spread of infectious diseases, and says bird flu is likely to be the next epidemic.
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