Warmer weather linked to increase in crime - research

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Wed, 02 Sep 2009 12:00a.m.

Those who study criminal activity say warmer temperatures also encourage other behaviours that lead to crime

Those who study criminal activity say warmer temperatures also encourage other behaviours that lead to crime

By Juanita Copeland

Research conducted by Canterbury University shows a rise in temperatures brings an increase in violence and property crimes.

The study has even pinpointed the most dangerous temperatures – when crimes like assault, robbery, theft and even homicide are more likely to occur.

“If we compare a day where the maximum temperature is 10 degrees, to a day when the maximum temperature is 25 degrees, we would expect an 8 percent more violent crime on the warmer day,” says Canterbury University student James Horrocks.

Mr Horrocks used crimes statistics from the police and weather data from NIWA over nine years, and found that the temperature range between 25 and 32 degrees seems to be when violent and property crimes are committed.

“Higher temperatures increase aggression amongst people, so that is something that has been documented. The other side of that is there is increased interaction – people are more likely to be out in public interacting and more chance of a violent crime occurring,” says Mr Horrocks.

He says his research could help police plan their patrols better.

“They might decide to increase patrols in neighbourhoods when it is warm to prevent burglaries that occur.”

Those who study criminal activity say warmer temperatures also encourage other behaviours that lead to crime.

Mr Horrocks says he will send his findings to police.

For the rest of the year he is planning to broaden his research, to look at how other weather events like the full moon and warm Norwest winds affect crime.

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Comments

21 Feb 2011 06:27a.m.

Melissa wrote:

It is important to conduct this reaseach in order to make assumptions into facts. These reseach helps make the argument that more cops and funding is is neccesary in warm month or warmer states/locations. As they say assuming make an #ss at of you and me. Is easy to assume but it is essential to prove that assumptiom (or hypothesis) into paper in order to make it valid.

03 Sep 2009 12:19p.m.

Louis wrote:

So Mr Horrocks is a "scientific genius" and the FBI some how never could figure out what was in front of them all the time? It could be that our climatic changes make the statistics a lot more obvious than a lot of the states? Anyway the fact is that the Police have known this fact in NZ for decades. I also agree that there are effects from the moon (the lunar phenomenon) however I think this is also well known (and for centuries.)

03 Sep 2009 12:07p.m.

John Jones wrote:

I'm sorry Paul but in your argument you infer that summer inflicts a rise in crime, which although may be correct, horrockses study neglects the effect of seasonal trends, so maybe you should research the study being conducted before you comment on its validity

03 Sep 2009 08:14a.m.

Paul wrote:

Sorry to burst your bubble (FBI) Horry Policing gears up for summer, its the fine weather you see, more time for idol minds and hands to get thieving.

02 Sep 2009 09:15p.m.

Horry Raynor wrote:

Sorry Mr Ricky Johns but your comment is in valid. Mr Horrocks is totaly correct with his findings and is actualy a scientific genious. Ive worked with the F.B.I and I have been contacted by some collegues back home and they were intrigued with Mr Horrockses findings. Keep up the fantastic work young man.

02 Sep 2009 06:24p.m.

Ricky Johns wrote:

Sorry Mr Horrocks but the Police (and probably everyone else) has known this for years and guess what? There is more serious crime during a full moon and that is not new either, check out Loonies, lunatics etc Every cop knows that a combination of warm weather and even Nor Westers is going to cause them work but there is not a thing they can do about it. All their staff are already committed to their duties.This "research" is self evident every Summer.