SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
ISSUED BY MetService AT 9:46am 25-Nov-2015
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST IN: Fiordland, Westland, Canterbury,
Otago, Southland, Marlborough, Wairarapa, Wellington
HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTH ISLAND, AND SIGNIFICANT
SPILLOVER FOR THE OTAGO AND CANTERBURY HEADWATERS. SEVERE NORTHWEST
GALES FOR FIORDLAND AND EASTERN AREAS FROM SOUTHLAND TO WAIRARAPA.
A very active front, preceded by an unusually strong and moist north
to northwest flow, will approach the South Island during Thursday,
crossing the lower South Island Thursday night, easing over central
New Zealand Friday evening and night.
Significant heavy rain is forecast for Fiordland, Westland and the
headwaters of the Otago and Canterbury lakes and rivers. Up to 200mm
of rain could accumulate about the Westland ranges, with only
slightly lesser amounts in Fiordland and the headwaters. Rainfall
intensities could reach 35mm/hr during Friday morning in
In addition to the heavy rain, very strong northwest gales are likely
to affect many places from Fiordland to southern Wairarapa, with
severe gale gusts of up to 160km/h possible in exposed places.
This is likely to be a significant weather event, affecting large
parts of southern and central New Zealand. Rivers and stream are
likely to rise very rapidly, and there could be surface flooding.
Also, winds of this strength can topple trees, powerlines and
irrigation systems, and can make driving extremely hazardous,
especially for motorcycles and high-sided vehicles.
People in the affected areas are urged to exercise extreme caution,
and the general population is advised to keep up to date with the
latest forecasts as more areas could be placed on Warning or Watch.
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND FORECAST CHARTS PLEASE GO TO
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND TECHNICAL USERS
HEAVY RAIN WARNING
AREA/S AFFECTED: FIORDLAND
Rain is expected to become heavy early Thursday evening. In the 15
hours from 6pm Thursday to 9am Friday, expect 120 to 150mm of rain to
accumulate. Peak intensities of 20-30mm/hr in thunderstorms Thursday
AREA/S AFFECTED: WESTLAND RANGES
Rain is expected to become heavy Thursday evening. In the 21 hours
from 9pm Thursday to 6pm Friday, expect 150-200mm of rain to
accumulate about the ranges, with lesser amount near the coast. Peak
intensities of 25-35mm/hr in thunderstorms Friday morning.
AREA/S AFFECTED: HEADWATERS OF THE OTAGO AND CANTERBURY LAKES AND
Rain is forecast to become heavy west of the Divide Thursday evening,
with significant spillover setting in overnight. In the 9 hours from
3am till noon Friday - but the 12 hours from 6am till 6pm Friday in
north Canterbury - expect 100 to 150mm of rain to accumulate near the
Divide, with 60 to 100mm of rain within 15km east of the Divide.
STRONG WIND WARNING
AREA/S AFFECTED: FIORDLAND, SOUTHLAND AND OTAGO
Northwest gales are forecast to develop Thursday morning. From around
noon Thursday till Friday morning, expect severe northwest gales
gusting 130km/h, possibly even 150 to 160km/h in exposed inland
AREA/S AFFECTED: CANTERBURY AND MARLBOROUGH
Northwest gales are expected to develop during Thursday. From
Thursday afternoon in Canterbury and Thursday evening in Marlborough
till Friday afternoon (Friday evening in Marlborough), expect severe
northwest gales gusting 130km/hr, possibly even 150 to 160km/h about
and in the lee of the ranges.
AREA/S AFFECTED: WELLINGTON AND SOUTHERN WAIRARAPA
Northwest winds are expected to rise to gale Thursday night. From
overnight Thursday till Friday evening, expect severe northwest gales
gusting 120km/hr in exposed places.
NEXT SEVERE WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT OR BEFORE
9:00pm Wednesday 25-Nov-2015
Forecast prepared by: Mads Naeraa-Spiers
For further information after 2pm contact Duty Forecaster Peter
A service provided through a contract with the Crown
Short Range Forecast
Northland to Waikato, also Coromandel and Bay of Plenty: Cloudy periods and isolated showers.
Waitomo, Taranaki, Taumarunui and Taupo: Cloud increasing this evening and a few showers developing. Showers clearing tomorrow afternoon then fine spells.
Gisborne and Hawkes Bay: Mainly fine.
Wanganui and Taihape to Wellington, including Wairarapa: Cloud increasing tonight with drizzle about Wellington and Kapiti Coast tomorrow morning.
Nelson, Marlborough, Canterbury, Otago and Southland: Mainly fine. High cloud increasing tomorrow and severe northwest gales developing inland.
Buller and northern Westland: Mostly cloudy. A few showers, clearing tomorrow afternoon but rain developing later.
Remainder of Westland, and Fiordland: Occasional rain, becoming heavy and possibly thundery tomorrow evening. Severe northwest gales developing in Fiordland tomorrow morning.
Chatham Islands: Low cloud.
Friday: North Island, a few showers becoming rain in most places. Mainly fine with high cloud about the east coast. South Island, rain spreading to most places, with heavy falls in the west.
Saturday: North Island, rain, with some heavy falls about the central North Island, easing to a few showers from the southwest. South Island, rain about the west coast with some heavy falls, some rain or showers in the south, mainly fine elsewhere.
Sunday: North Island, some showers in Northland, a few early showers elsewhere clearing and fine spells increasing. South Island, mainly fine, but a few showers in Fiordland.
Chatham Islands: Cloudy periods on Friday with strong northerlies. Rain on Saturday, possibly heavy, and strong northerlies easing. On Saturday, mainly fine with light winds.