SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
ISSUED BY MetService AT 8:52pm 21-Nov-2014
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST IN: Fiordland, Westland, Buller,
Canterbury, Manawatu, Wellington, Marlborough, Wairarapa
HEAVY RAIN FOR THE THE WEST OF THE SOUTH ISLAND, THE ALPS AND LOWER
NORTH ISLAND. NORTHWEST GALES FOR CENTRAL NEW ZEALAND.
A slow moving front near southern Fiordland and Southland is forecast
to move northwards on Saturday.
This front is preceded by a prolonged period of rain in the west of
the South Island, but also brings a burst of heavy rain to the lower
North Island on Saturday. The largest rain amounts are expected in
Fiordland and Westland, where totals for this event are likely to
reach 200 to 300mm in the ranges. Spillover is also expected into the
Canterbury headwaters. Streams and rivers may rise quickly, and
increased flows are likely in eastern rivers. Surface flooding and
slips are also possible.
Additionally, strong northwesterlies ahead of the front will affect
areas between Canterbury and Hawkes Bay, with severe gales expected
in some places. The strongest winds are likely to affect Wairarapa,
the hills of Wellington (including the Rimutaka Hill Road) and the
Marlborough Sounds. In these areas, gusts of 120km/h or more are
possible, which may damage trees, powerlines and can make driving
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND FORECAST CHARTS PLEASE GO TO
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND TECHNICAL USERS
HEAVY RAIN WARNING
AREA/S AFFECTED: FIORDLAND
Rain, with heavy falls, is forecast to continue through to Saturday
morning. In the 12 hours from 9pm Friday to 9am Saturday, expect
another 60 to 80mm of rain to accumulate, but up to 120mm could fall
in the ranges north of Milford Sound. Peak intensities 15 to 25mm/hr.
FREEZING LEVEL: 2800 metres
AREA/S AFFECTED: WESTLAND RANGES SOUTH OF OTIRA
Rain, with heavy falls, is forecast to continue through to midday
Saturday. In the 15 hours from 9pm Friday to midday Saturday, expect
another 60 to 80mm of rain to accumulate, but up to 120mm could
accumulate in the mountains near the Glaciers. Peak intensities could
reach 20 to 30mm/hr tonight and again Saturday morning.
FREEZING LEVEL: About 3000 metres.
AREA/S AFFECTED: RANGES OF BULLER
Periods of heavy rain expected from tonight through Saturday morning.
In the 15 hours from 9pm Friday to midday Saturday, expect 90 to
120mm to accumulate about the ranges. Peak intensities 15 to 25mm/hr
FREEZING LEVEL: Rising to 3200 metres tonight.
AREA/S AFFECTED: HEADWATERS OF THE CANTERBURY LAKES AND RIVERS SOUTH
OF THE WAIMAKARIRI
Rain, with heavy falls, is forecast to continue on the Alps through
to midday Saturday. In the 15 hours from 9pm Friday to midday
Saturday, expect another 100mm on the Divide (possibly more near Mt
Cook), with 50mm spilling 10 to 15km east of the Divide.
FREEZING LEVEL: About 3000 metres.
AREA/S AFFECTED: THE TARARUA RANGE
Periods of rain expected on Saturday from before dawn to late
afternoon. In the 18 hours from midnight Friday to 6pm Saturday,
expect 70 to 100mm to accumulate, mostly falling from late morning to
mid-afternoon. Peak intensities could reach 10 to 20mm/hr briefly
around midday Saturday.
STRONG WIND WARNING
AREA/S AFFECTED: THE MARLBOROUGH SOUNDS AND WELLINGTON
Northwest gales are expected to become severe for a time on Saturday.
From early Saturday morning until mid-afternoon, gusts of 120km/hr
are possible, especially about the Outer Sounds and exposed hill tops
AREA/S AFFECTED: WAIRARAPA INCLUDING THE RIMUTAKA HILL ROAD
Northwest gales are expected to become severe on Saturday. From early
Saturday morning through to Saturday evening, gusts of 130km/h are
likely in exposed places.
NEXT SEVERE WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT OR BEFORE
9:00am Saturday 22-Nov-2014
Forecast prepared by: Sarah Garlick
For further information after 9pm contact Duty Forecaster Andy Downs
or William Nepe
A service provided through a contract with the Crown
Short Range Forecast
Northland, Auckland, Coromandel and Bay of Plenty: Patchy morning drizzle then fine spells. Rain developing this evening.
Gisborne and Hawkes Bay: Fine spells. Brief showers by evening.
Waikato and Taupo to Wellington, also Wairarapa, Marlborough and Nelson: Patchy drizzle turning to rain this morning. Northwest gales, severe in Wellington, Wairarapa and the Sounds for a time. Rain easing to showers this afternoon, and winds changing to southerly in the evening.
Buller, Westland and Fiordland: Rain, heavy at times, with thunderstorms this morning, easing from the south later.
Canterbury: High cloud, with few spots of rain. Showers and strong colder southerlies spreading north this afternoon, with squally thunderstorms, hail and gales for a time.
Otago, Southland: Rain spreading north this morning, with heavy falls, easing to isolated showers in the afternoon, then clearing later.
Chatham Islands: Cloudy periods. Rain developing this evening.
Sunday: North Island, fine spells and scattered morning showers. South Island, mainly fine, morning cloud in the east, high cloud increasing in the south later with scattered evening rain.
Monday: North Island, mainly fine in Gisborne and Hawkes Bay, a few showers in the north, scattered rain developing elsewhere. South Island, rain developing in the west, high cloud in the east, with scattered rain in Otago and Southland.
Tuesday: North Island, cloudy periods in the north, also Gisborne and Hawkes Bay, rain at times elsewhere. South Island, rain becoming heavier and more persistent in the west, scattered rain spreading further east.
Chatham Islands: Rain clearing on Sunday, and gale northwesterlies tending southwest then gradually dying away. Cloud increasing on Monday and northerlies developing. Rain at times on Tuesday.