By Peter Wilson, Political Writer
The polls say National will make history and win an outright majority on Saturday but the party isn't so sure.
Labour is stranded below 30 percent and clings to the hope it will be able to lead a multi-party coalition.
The Greens look certain to come in with more MPs than they had in the last parliament and the Maori Party is confident of retaining its four seats.
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ACT and United Future will disappear unless John Banks wins Epsom and Peter Dunne retains Ohariu. Both results are uncertain.
New Zealand First is nudging the 5 percent threshold and Winston Peters could could make an amazing comeback, but it's going to be hard.
Saturday's election result could be neat and tidy, or it could be complicated and might be messy.
NZ Newswire's average of the published polls shows National on 52 percent and Labour on 28 percent.
The polls have been unusually consistent and haven't changed much throughout National's first term.
Because of the way MMP works, it's considered anything over 48 percent will be enough for National to have a majority and govern without needing any support parties.
It came close in 2008 with 45 percent and 58 MPs in a 122-member parliament, when ACT's five ensured a majority.
Neither of the main parties has won an outright majority since MMP was introduced in 1996 but there hasn't been a situation quite like this one before.
National's worst case scenario is coming in with less than an outright majority and not having a minor party to step up and sign a support deal.
Its natural ally, ACT, is in deep trouble. Its support has collapsed to around 1 percent - votes that have gone to National - and surveys show Mr Banks trailing in Epsom.
National supporters are being told to vote strategically and make sure he gets in but they're unwilling to go along with stitching up the result.
That could change if they decide they have to do their duty when they get to the ballot boxes.
But even if Mr Banks succeeds, ACT isn't likely to bring in more than one other MP, which would be party leader Don Brash.
The Maori Party, which supported National in the last parliament, won't give that assurance this time. Its close association gave it problems in the last parliament and Hone Harawira quit to form the Mana Party.
It will consult its members before deciding what to do, as it did in 2008, and if National has to rely on the Maori Party there will be a series of hui around the country before a government can be formed.
Peter Dunne is a confirmed ally but the UF leader is in a very close race with Labour's Charles Chauvel in Ohariu.
As in Epsom, National wants its supporters to back him but the polls show the plan isn't working well enough to lock in his return.
If he does come back he will almost certainly be UF's only MP because the party is barely registering in the polls.
Prime Minister John Key has ruled out working with NZ First or the Mana Party.
Labour hasn't a chance of closing the gap between itself and National.
It doesn't look likely to match the 34 percent it won in 2008, and some of its MPs are almost certainly doomed.
Labour has lost votes to the Greens, who are running at around 12 percent and hope they will have about 15 MPs compared with nine in the last parliament.
But the combined support for Labour and the Greens doesn't come close to National, and Labour leader Phil Goff would have to try to negotiate deals with other minor parties to put together a majority.
That's something Mr Key keeps warning about, and without actually saying National wants to govern alone he knows it's the only sure way to avoid a potentially unstable government led by Labour.
It's why he keeps telling voters the result could be closer than they think.
NZN